Prof. Dr. İsmail Ermağan writes... The future of war-defense technologies and Turkey

Prof. Dr. İsmail Ermağan

***

As we head toward the 22nd century, the future of defense technologies is being discussed everywhere in the world—from the protection of the individual to the defense systems of states, and from regional scales to the depths of space—through the lenses of engineering, technology, materials science, energy, or international relations disciplines, while drawing inspiration from past examples, amidst physical-virtual and hybrid-environment, multi-layered, interconnected, and instant-notification challenges.

This article will first crystallize the groundbreaking future defense fields and then take a snapshot of Turkey in this context.

***

War-Defense Technologies Transforming from History to the Present

World history has witnessed a wide variety of defense and attack mechanisms from antiquity to the present day. For example, people once built walls, like the Great Wall of China; they placed chains across seas, for instance, so that Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror could move his ships over land. They sent plague-ridden corpses with catapults to conquer fortresses, and unleashed horses and elephants to break through front lines.

Since wars were fought on land for many years, land forces were formed, and subsequently, as the seas became involved, naval commands were established. The first distinct domain of the modern era was the air, and even today, because the essence of defense for countries is carried out through aerial elements, the Air Force Command holds strategic importance.

With the recent inclusion of space and cyberspace in the defense-war equation, states have faced a risky challenge where they must protect themselves in five different domains. In other words, moon and space research since the 1950s and the wrapping of the world in internet cables in 1990 have given birth to a completely different security architecture.

The security environment of the 21st century is transforming into a multi-dimensional structure where hybrid threats, cyberattacks-digitalization, artificial intelligence-based systems, and space technologies come to the fore. It must be persistently recognized, in a way that the public in Turkey significantly overlooks, that the defense technologies of the future do not only include the traditional and new weapon systems we have mentioned; on the contrary, they are advancing in the fields of brand-new, technologically complex robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology, neurotechnology, and quantum; these are also—as I wrote in my book 'International Relations and Technology Relationship'—called groundbreaking war(fare) technologies.

There are efforts to make existing war products even more destructive, such as bombs that can destroy cities like atomic or nuclear weapons, or hypersonic missiles that reach countries and continents and even travel the world (moving at speeds above Mach 5). On the other hand, there are systems that diversify and increase in danger level as technology advances. For example, energy (laser/microwave) weapons (which we see a lot in science fiction movies) that hold revolutionary potential and stand out in air defense and anti-drone system applications. Again, the blinding or contact-locking of digitized systems through electronic warfare is giving rise to a new form of colonialism. How will these be countered? 

The 4th Industrial Revolution, which has been taking place since 2013, is also rejuvenating global defense capabilities. Unmanned aerial, land, and sea vehicles or decision-support systems, along with artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, have immediately established themselves at this point. Let us consider: submarine journeys that could be made from Russia to Cuba over 6 months, which also led to promotions, are now being taken over by unmanned submarines; who will be given the rank?

The dimensions of cybercrime and cybersecurity have long since made it possible to interfere in the internal affairs of states in today's and tomorrow's hyper-anarchic order, in defiance of the 1648 Westphalian order. Central banks are being emptied, citizen data is being stolen; is there still a one-hundred-percent sovereign state? Is the US or North Korea less risky in this regard? Total defense in the digital environment now seems impossible.

The foundation of air defense begins in space. Radars and surveillance-intelligence have evolved into a vital position. Millimetric snapshots taken from space have made micro-protection tactics high-risk. Today, digitized-unmanned-autonomous systems have the capacity to instantly destroy living or non-living targets by processing data from space in real-time, as witnessed in the cases of the assassinated leaders of Iran or Hamas. If you have a satellite, your military capabilities increase within the framework of space-based intelligence and missile defense systems. Air-supported protective shields and steel domes make one think of a different kind of future as a new fashion in security architecture for city-country security. Were there air protection shields in history that could have prevented the plague-ridden bodies thrown by catapults? We will see if high technology will find a solution to the desperation, as seen with hypersonic missiles and in Iran's experiences with Israel. And will low-altitude protection mechanisms be a remedy for attacks carried out like flocks of Ababil birds with drone swarms, where Ukraine infiltrated deep into Russia? We will see that too; there will always be new versions of defense and attack. The issue is investment in the brains that will produce these and R&D!

Nanotechnologies are a whole system of organisms that are made error-free or more successful by shrinking matter by millions of units from very different fields, from fuel to heat. In armored vehicles, resistance to heat, impact, and ballistic threats can be increased with nano-coatings; in radar and missile systems, skill in target detection can be increased with nano-chips; the success level of advanced cameras and sensors in unmanned aerial vehicles can be increased; and non-flammable camouflage can be sewn for soldiers.

With biotechnology, nature has already become a form of war botany. This field offers a very critical potential with numerous biological weapons and defense products, such as pepper spray or consciousness-altering agents. For example, modern armies are testing military biomedical applications; they aim to develop early warning systems and DNA-based biosensors against threats such as freezing or poisoning.

Neurotechnology has been the brand-new research field of our age, especially for the last 20 years, and is opening a strategic lane in military planes. With this technology, it is possible to format soldiers to be as strong as robots, or to implant chips into the brains of thousands of monkeys, or to reset depression or longing; soldiers experiencing crises may no longer feel sad in barracks or on the front lines! On the other hand, human-machine partnership integrated with artificial intelligence will be able to find direct application areas in command-control systems and drone swarms in the future.

The quantum system is of revolutionary importance, especially in communication and encryption systems, and holds the potential for a brand-new war tactic—seizure. Steps taken on quantum encryption, sensors, and secure communication constitute a strategic preparation for the battlefield of the future. In states that do not possess this technology, for example, it will become very difficult to store the information of politicians or private military information, and cosmic rooms will not be protected. Weather forecasts will be predicted accurately, and risky flights, as dramatically experienced by Iranian President Raisi or BBP founding Chairman Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu, will be put to an end. Quantum communication satellites, quantum radars, and post-quantum cryptography will be among the apples of the eye of the future defense sector.

***

Did Turkey, Which Could Not Produce a Hand Grenade, Finish the Job by Building a Steel Dome?

Within the framework of the groundbreaking future defense technologies theoretically raised above, it has succeeded in producing radical product outputs in various fields such as the Altay tank, missiles, air defense systems, MİLGEM warships, Hürjet, the ATAK helicopter, and electronic warfare systems.

The British magazine The Economist has announced that Turkey could enter the top 5 in global arms exports (from 11th place) in the coming period.

It is observed that Turkish weapons have become attractive in the global market with NATO standards, affordable prices, and an "unconditional sales policy." A $3 billion joint production agreement was signed with Saudi Arabia for Akıncı, or a cooperation was initiated with the Italian Leonardo for Kızılelma. A $1.6 billion Hürjet joint production with Spain, a $930 million armored vehicle sale to Romania, and a $134 million naval supply ship agreement with Portugal were realized. Finally, it is stated that the KAAN fighter jet will both replace F-16s and attract attention in the international market as a low-cost F-35 alternative.

In the field of nanotechnology, a structure that is lighter, more durable, and has lower radar visibility is targeted in Turkey's national combat aircraft KAAN project thanks to nano-composite materials.

Turkey is working on biotechnology in the defense sector, especially in biosecurity and health technologies. As an output, biotechnology-based medical solutions have begun to be used for soldiers' injuries and traumas in the army.

Within the scope of neurotechnological studies, various projects are being carried out with ASELSAN and universities; thus, for example, with the principle of cognitive superiority, soldiers' stress levels and attention levels can be monitored with biosensors.

Quantum computer technology, which exists in 15 countries in the world, was declared for the first time in Turkey in 2024 (as the first quantum computer, Quantum Computer of TOBB ETÜ (QuanT)). On the other hand, it is known that "quantum military" is not yet at a mature level. However, in the long run, the development of quantum capabilities is indispensable both for defense independence and for its technology role within NATO.

In conclusion, Turkey's increasing domestic production capacity in war and defense technologies is valuable in the context of strategic autonomy. However, there are also serious tasks that cannot be neglected. Although our country stands out especially with autonomous systems, air defense, and national combat aircraft projects, high-tech investments, human resource development, and the careful establishment of international collaborations are essential for sustainable success. Turkey is moving toward becoming an effective actor in the global security architecture by developing technology transfer and joint production projects both with its allies within NATO and with countries in Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America.

*** 

Conclusion

Today, in international security systems, technologies such as informatics, cyberspace, space, nanotechnology, biotechnology, neurotechnology, and quantum have made defense and attack systems very intricate, and we are heading toward a stage where complete independence is becoming impossible. The sentence attributed to Einstein, "I do not know what weapons will be used in World War III, but I know that World War IV will be fought with stones and sticks," proves this complex structure to us in the near future, and as a preparation, it advises all of Turkey to work very hard with a vision that transcends the government and opposition parties.

News Source: 12punto