Turkey's Sweden decision: The biggest winner will be the US

12punto contributor and Foreign Policy Expert Violeta Stratan İlbasmış made assessments ahead of the vote in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) on Sweden's accession to NATO. Explaining the effects of Sweden's NATO membership on Russia, İlbasmış wrote the following:

"First of all, we must note that the vote held in the TBMM specialized committee regarding Sweden's NATO accession came after the tragic news of the death of 12 soldiers in Northern Iraq. From a moral standpoint, whether this decision was made at the right time is open to debate. With the vote to be held in the General Assembly of the Parliament in Ankara, Sweden (if Hungary also approves Sweden's NATO membership) will officially become the 32nd NATO member after more than 200 years of neutrality. However, the biggest winner in this matter is the US, because with the addition of Sweden, NATO's northern flank, starting from the Baltic Sea, is largely secured against Russia.

Turkey initially strongly opposed the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, stating that this step would be a "mistake," just like Greece's accession to NATO. It specifically accused Sweden of being a “guesthouse for terrorist organizations.” Although Sweden has promised to show solidarity with Turkey in the fight against all forms of terrorism and not to impose restrictions or embargoes on the defense industry, it will take time to see the results of these commitments.

It may also take time to see the results of US President Biden saying: “You approve Sweden's membership, and I will work to get the F-16 sale through Congress.” At the beginning of December, Erdoğan had added the condition that Washington approve the sale of F-16s to Ankara as a prerequisite for approving Sweden's NATO accession application. We will soon see whether Turkey will achieve its goal in negotiations with the US.

“What will happen if it doesn't?” is the real question.

For now, there has been no official reaction from Russia regarding the TBMM Foreign Affairs Committee vote, but we sense from Russia's previous reactions toward Turkey that friendly but at the same time pragmatic relations will not be affected. Russia is aware of Turkey's geopolitical realities and its obligations toward Sweden as an alliance member. Russia's problems will be related to the defense of its 1,340-kilometer border with Finland (a NATO country) and the transformation of the Baltic Sea into a “NATO lake.” It should not be forgotten that Russia's Baltic fleet is located in the Kaliningrad region."

News Source: 12punto