What is happening in the US? Is the Texas Governor's decision a constitutional right or a civil war?

Melik ÇELİK - 12punto.com.tr

In the US, the state of Texas installing barbed wire at the border against immigrant entry has become a subject of debate. The US Supreme Court ruled that this barbed wire must be removed. However, Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott described this situation as an "invasion" and announced that he would not remove the wire. This statement by the governor received support from 25 Republican states across the US and Donald Trump.

Trakya University Lecturer Dr. Özdemir Akbal and Harici.com.tr writer Sarp Sinan Hacır provided evaluations to 12punto regarding the issue.

"HE IS DISREGARDING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S ORDER"

Drawing attention to the fake news spreading on social media regarding the subject, Dr. Akbal summarized the situation as follows:

"First of all, thank you for the question. Because with this question, we will be able to shed light on events that neither American President Joe Biden nor Texas Governor Greg Abbott are even aware of, but which are topics on our social media. On this occasion, I suggest that both US President Joe Biden and Texas Governor Greg Abbott follow social media accounts in Turkey to get information about a civil war that will break out in the US. After this ironic introduction, let me give a clear answer: Nothing is happening. For minds that do not understand the relationship between the federated state and the federal state in the US, the concept of governor might be wanted to be understood as it is in Turkish Public Administration, but this is not the case for the US administrative structure.

The office that we have translated as 'governor' for years as a result of a mistake is actually a head of state. That is, the US consists of federated states attached to a federal state. That is exactly why it is called the United States. That is, a state formed by the union of more than one state, and the net number here is 50. This also applies to Texas. In other words, Texas is not a province of the US. Texas is one of the states that make up the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. It is independent in its internal affairs and partially dependent on the federal state structure in terms of external activities. At this point, the Texas National Guard (one could call this structure the state's own armed forces) is disregarding the federal government's order to remove the barricades on the Mexican border by the order of the Texas head of state. This situation is being dragged into an unexpected place on social media accounts in Turkey, and the primary purpose of this effort is nothing more than to attract attention."

"EVEN THE TEXAS GOVERNOR DOES NOT CARE"

Akbal stated that the civil war comments in some media outlets are not true. Warning against approaches full of hearsay and translation errors, Akbal said:

"Because it didn't even cross my mind. Let me say something even more striking. It didn't even cross the mind of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. If you carefully examine Abbott's social media accounts, you will see that his visit to India attracted much more attention than the 'civil war that comes to mind.' Therefore, I do not know and am not interested in what those who have a 'civil war in mind' know about US politics. But this situation contains no meaning other than the speculation-loving nature of social and conventional media being coated in a sauce of so-called journalism and presented to people. Of course, one must ask why a Turkish citizen is interested in this issue, which has emerged between the federated state of Texas and the American federal state, and which remains at a limited level even on the agenda of the administrator of the federated state of Texas. International politics and foreign policy study is serious business, and this does not happen with hearsay approaches full of translation errors that do not know structure and relationships."

Akbal also drew attention to the differences in the US management style from Turkey:

"The states and the federal government have not come face to face either. One should stay away from these sensational approaches, primarily due to journalistic ethics. State (head of state) leaders who are members of the Republican Governors Association stated that they support the activities of the state (state) of Texas and that the border crossings of incoming illegal asylum seekers should be brought under control. Apart from this, there is no expression such as separating from the federal structure or organizing a military attack on Washington. This consists only of empty rumors thrown out in these channels, which were once highly praised as new media and are now being thought about with concern due to information pollution and disinformation, being served by accounts whose journalistic ethics and capacity for 'information' or 'news' are unknown," he said.

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CIVIL WAR

Pointing out that there is no similarity between the current event and the American Civil War of 1861-1865, Akbal said:

"So, this incident has not the slightest connection to the American Civil War. As I said, both Texas Governor Abbott and Federal President Biden are probably following these developments from places we call social media and internet 'newspapers' and reading them saying, 'Look, is that how it's happening?' By the way, you may have noticed that they started speaking Turkish because they follow our social media too much. I hope the irony here can also be understood. Additionally, as the US is a state, it has its own social structures and breaking points. Therefore, many social events have occurred in the US. And they will continue to occur. What surprises me most is why such an exaggerated and attentive behavior is exhibited in our social media and 'internet newspaper' structures in every event that occurs in the US. My personal opinion is that the feeling of admiration lies beneath the excessive criticism. That is, in the mental infrastructure of those who exhibit this kind of behavior, the US is seen as such a great state that every event that occurs in this geography is met with astonishment. These are not the subject of political science research. They are more related to the field of psychology and psychiatry."

Stating that directly linking the issue to the US elections would be a very exaggerated situation, Akbal said, "However, the fact that Democratic President Joe Biden is quite old and his presidential performance is not approved by voters already makes his job quite difficult. Under these conditions, his candidacy again seems like a reason in itself for a neck-and-neck election. Of course, the candidate the Republicans will field is also important at this point. It would be much more accurate to talk about this after the candidacy race is completed. Because political scientists are not fortune tellers or magicians. Therefore, it is quite difficult for us to predict the future. However, it is possible for us to define the probabilities with analytical approaches put forward with the available data and information," he stated.

THE EVENT THAT LEFT ITS MARK ON AMERICA: ILLEGAL MIGRATION

Harici writer Sarp Sinan Hacır pointed out that the issue of illegal migration has left its mark on the US in recent years. Reminding that 7 million people tried to cross the border during the Biden era alone, Hacır also stated that this situation will be effective in the voters' preferences. Hacır said:

"The biggest event that has left its mark on America in the last few years has been illegal migration. Especially after 2022, an incredible wave of migration coming from the south turned America's agenda only to this. It is known that 7 million people tried to cross the border during the Biden era within approximately 4 years. It is said that at least two million of them were successful. And it is known that 300 thousand people tried to cross from the south again just last December. So there is a very serious crisis for America. This crisis is one of the two issues that American voters take most seriously as they head to the 2024 elections. The first is the economy and the second is this illegal migration problem. Republicans know this well, so they do not hesitate to go after this issue. Something similar happened last year too.

Barbed wire was installed by the state administration around the Rio Grande River in the state of Texas on the American border. However, the Joe Biden government wanted them removed. That is, according to the Biden government and the Democrats, while the migration issue is a problem, they see it as a behavior that does not fit humanity to put barbed wire there, that is, to individual rights. Because it is known that there are those who drowned because there is barbed wire in the Rio Grande River, and they want it removed as an intervention to this. However, the Texas governorship had been resisting this for a long time and the issue had been moved to the Supreme Court. A result that the Republicans did not want actually came out of the Supreme Court. It was decided that Biden was right and the barbed wire should be removed. But the interesting issue here is this: The American Supreme Court, called the Supreme Court, normally has nine members and six of them are in favor of the Republicans. Especially thanks to the two appointments made during the Trump era, they were able to seize the high majority and pass what they wanted in the court. We know well from the abortion issue, the Republicans had become able to do what they wanted. But it was ruled that the barbed wire should be removed.

TEXAS GOVERNOR Texas Governor Greg Abbott says this should not happen, that it is a wrong decision, and states that they will not comply with the Supreme Court's decision. He is also making a constitutional explanation for this. That is, he says in the American Constitution that states can resist when there is an invasion situation, when there is an occupation situation, and he says that the illegal migration currently happening, which is in very high numbers, is really an attempt at occupation, an attempt at invasion, and therefore states can take such measures without asking the federal government and congress.

Now if we look at the law, the American Constitution is a very old constitution, that is, it has a very old constitution compared to other European countries, and at the time it was written, at the end of the 1700s, America was a country consisting of 13 colonies, and these colonies could not be supported much by the federal government. The federal government was not in a size to provide security or protection to these places militarily, and while these laws were being prepared, such a perception was formed in their minds:

'We are not in a position to repel this occupation with our own army when there is an occupation attempt by other colonial powers, by the Spanish, by the British, perhaps by the French. We don't have such a force.'

Even the issue of armament, individual armament, which we talk about a lot and which has a serious place on the American agenda, arises for the same reason. The 2nd article of the American constitution, which emerged at that time, emerges to eliminate this fear. That is, American citizens will show resistance with their own individual weapons without needing the federal government when there is an occupation attempt, and the states will organize this resistance. However, when this constitution was written, the weapons on hand were very archaic. Today, there is no situation where the federal government is helpless as we see.

What is done here is political. Policies are based more on preference, that is, the Biden Government's policies require this. They say that it should not be intervened, that is, this migration is not just a matter of some political problems experienced in South America, but the US economy also wants illegal migration. Thinking about this, they say let's not completely oppose migration. Their own thoughts are also economic in the same way."

AMERICAN CIVIL WAR IS BASED ON STATE RIGHTS

Reminding that the contradiction between the state and federal structure that exists in US history also existed in history, Hacır said,

"When the American Civil War broke out, there was a direct economic reservation. There was an economic fear. What was this fear? When the mid-1800s were passed, the American economy was more industrialized in the north, and it was still an agricultural economy in the south. In this case, the Northerners no longer needed the exploitation of slave labor much. Because their economies were not dependent on this. But the Southerners were still continuing to maintain their trade economies largely with this slave labor. When Abraham Lincoln said that slavery should be abolished, the Southerners who thought they would suffer economic damage rebelled.

Now, the structure you call the American Civil War actually emerges with an economic friction, and these discussions are still continuing. That is, when you look at the American media today, there is a sentence that should not be said. Nikki Haley, one of the presidential candidates, received very serious reactions because she emphasized this while American election campaigns were continuing, she said; the American civil war was actually based on state rights. That is, it was based on the right to own slaves. This discussion always continues. The effort of the Southern Confederate supporters to justify owning slaves was based on creating the perception of 'The Federal Structure is interfering with my life, interfering with my rules and my laws as a state.' The US is a country based on this discussion. That is, state right or federal government right?" he stated.

"AMERICANS ARE SCARED"

Stating that the election to be held in the US will be tense and that people are uneasy because of this, Hacır said:

"So that's why, no matter how serious this event is, and many Americans are a bit more scared. That is, there are also people who express their fears, making comments like 'will a situation that turns into a civil war again come out of here.' But as I mentioned just now, it is not possible to talk about an economic situation. That is, it is not possible to talk about an existential problem. 25 states have declared support for Texas so far. All Republicans say we are behind Greg Abbott. But here, one must see this, this year is an election year. Such mobility happens in an election year, it happened before too.

American history is a history full of the state and Federal Structure coming face to face, and this is a concept that determines the policies of the parties. That is, while the Republican Party says a little more state rights, let states be more independent, let them make their own decisions, Democrats impose that the federal structure should be more connected. For example, the abortion issue was also entirely based on this. The Supreme Court and the Republicans had made a decision that left abortion to the states as they wanted. This discussion will always continue. It is not something that will end for Americans. A similar encounter happened last year too. America is not in a period where those breakups were experienced in the mid-1800s, it has a much stronger intelligence structure, and when you say a civil war, you are talking about a serious organization.

Especially if you are talking about an issue as serious as a civil war, it does not seem like something that the US federal structure does not want will happen for now, but I want to underline it again: The US is a very polarized country and it is becoming more polarized every day. It was said so because of Trump before. Biden came, it didn't change. Now Trump might come again, maybe it will increase even more. It is not something that can be sustained forever. A country is divided in a fifty-fifty way. That's why my guess is that the US is not going well in this regard. It is going through a period where cultural problems and social issues are multiplying. For now, I do not expect a civil war over this specific event, but this creates a perception in us that it could be a period where more fights are experienced, street events are experienced, perhaps terrorist events are experienced. That is, we may hear more about such events in the coming years, in the coming months, years."

Finally, stating that the elections will greatly affect the migration issue, Hacır evaluated the latest developments regarding the election process in the US as follows:

"The number one issue for the American voter is the Trump government. The Trump Government was saying that it took the migration issue very seriously and now it says 'if I am elected for the second time, I will take this even more seriously.' They are also squeezing Biden from here. That is, they are talking about it as the most important issue for us. All these discussions bring a serious gain to Trump.

It both consolidates the Republican masses and the masses who are more independent, more undecided, who do not yet know whether to vote for Biden or Trump. It reminds them of the Republicans' number one campaign issue as the country's biggest problem.

How Biden will defend himself on this issue, how he will explain it is a matter of curiosity. If they take heavy measures against the illegal migration issue, it is a matter of reaction in immigrant communities and their votes falling. Biden's votes have fallen significantly due to the Israel issue. Muslims in America say they will not go to the polls. This is not an issue that Biden can easily overcome. Because the places where Muslims live in the majority are in the most critical states and it is said that he has already lost these votes. If this happens, more vote loss will create a great danger. In every election that has passed, Trump has strangely pulled his votes up among minorities. That is, he received more votes from Latinos, more from Blacks, more from Asians in the 2022 midterm elections than he received in 2016, and now it is said that this will increase even more in 2024. He has support reaching up to sixty percent from Latinos living in New York state alone. Now, while the vast majority of immigrants coming from the south are Latino, how is it that Latinos support Trump? This is actually a general discussion topic for them. Latinos who have been able to enter the country and have obtained citizenship do not want more Latinos to come, and the Republicans caught this well, they identified it well. They started to increase their votes among minorities over this. That is why I am of the opinion that Trump's entire politics and migration policies will deal the final blow to Biden, who is in a difficult situation. This event provided a great benefit to the Republicans for the election."

News Source: Melik Çelik