Striking 'election' prediction from The New York Times! 'İmamoğlu would win'

An article titled "The People of Turkey Are Resisting Autocracy. They Deserve More Than Silence" was published in the US-based newspaper The New York Times.

The article recalled the arrest of CHP's presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu and the subsequent protests, emphasizing that President Erdoğan's "administration has become authoritarian over the years, weakening judicial independence and suppressing the opposition."

"While drawing attention to the indifference of world leaders, it was stated that the Turkish people's struggle for democracy should be supported more." Furthermore, it was noted that "İmamoğlu could be a strong alternative to Erdoğan."

"TURKEY IS SLIDING TOWARD AUTOCRACY"

The article stated, "The United States has long been willing to befriend bad foreign governments, sometimes for good reasons. In a dangerous world, democracies cannot afford to alienate every opponent of democracy." The article, which expressed that "in any alliance formed with an autocratic government, the balances must be carefully weighed, and it should be asked how valuable this relationship is for American interests and how 'terrible' the administration's behavior is," noted that "a large part of President Erdoğan's 22-year rule is a symbol of this dilemma."

The article recorded the following:

"Located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Turkey is an important US ally with the second-largest army in NATO. However, Turkey has been sliding toward autocracy for the last decade. Mr. Erdoğan has changed the administrative structure to increase his power, brought the courts under his control, manipulated elections, purged professors, closed media outlets, and arrested journalists and protesters. Last month, Mr. Erdoğan took his attacks on democracy to a new level.

With growing dissatisfaction with his government, he detained his likely rival in the next presidential election, Istanbul's popular Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and about 100 of İmamoğlu's colleagues on dubious charges. The arrests put Turkey on the path Russia has traveled over the last two decades, where a democratically elected leader uses the powers of his office to turn it into an autocracy. Mr. İmamoğlu wrote from Silivri Prison, ‘This is more than a slow erosion of democracy. This is a deliberate dismantling of the institutional foundations of our Republic.’”

"MANY EUROPEAN LEADERS REMAINED SILENT"

The article, which stated that the reactions from the rest of the world were “weak,” recalled that shortly after İmamoğlu's arrest, US President Donald Trump said of Erdoğan, "I like him, and he likes me," and recorded the following:

“Many European leaders remained silent. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen only said that the 'arrest is deeply worrying.' Given Turkey's strategic importance and Mr. Erdoğan's grip on power, there are no easy answers. However, the world's democracies are striking the wrong balance. They can do more to support the Turkish people and pressure Mr. Erdoğan.”

"IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY..."

“It is argued that voters in Turkey no longer embrace President Erdoğan's rule,” the article said, adding, “According to polls and political analysts, if an election were held today, İmamoğlu would likely win. The 54-year-old İmamoğlu, who describes himself as a social democrat, is a member of the Republican People's Party, which Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded as a resistance group in 1919 and which later became the first ruling party of the modern Republic of Turkey. The party is committed to a secular government for Turkey.”

The article stated that İmamoğlu was elected Mayor of Istanbul in 2019 but that Erdoğan's party canceled the election, emphasizing that İmamoğlu won the second election more clearly.

The article used the following expressions: "Since then, he has built an impressive management record, such as cleaning up the pollution in the Golden Horn, Istanbul's main waterway, and providing free milk to children. His stance on foreign relations has been moderate; he condemned Hamas for the terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023, and has since criticized Israel for its attacks on Gaza. In contrast, Erdoğan praised Hamas as a liberation group and called for the destruction of Israel.”

CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The article stated that "İmamoğlu is a secular progressive, while 71-year-old Erdoğan is a religious conservative," and recorded the following:

"İmamoğlu is a pragmatic and popular Turkish leader who could provide stability at home while helping to curb conflicts in the Middle East. In his early years in power, Erdoğan built a broad political coalition, brought military officers under civilian control, grew the economy, promoted a moderate Islamism, tried to resolve the long-standing conflict with the Kurdish minority, and normalized relations with his neighbor and long-time rival Greece. This approach of his led George W. Bush and Barack Obama to develop a relationship with him.

However, over time, Erdoğan became more extreme, more corrupt, and more focused on consolidating his power. He came to power as Prime Minister in 2003, and after being elected President in 2014, he moved to change the Constitution to transfer power to that office. Since then, he has placed his authority above everything else. Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote, 'The healthy paranoia and self-confidence of a successful politician metastasized into egomania and vindictiveness. He destroyed all institutional checks and balances in the Turkish political system.' İmamoğlu's arrest is a sign that Erdoğan wants to be the indefinite President of Turkey.

"HE CAN DO IT BY CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION"

The next step he might take toward this goal could be trying to avoid term limits that would prevent him from running again in 2028, when the next election will be held. He could do this by calling for an early election or by changing the Constitution again.

Trump has shown his disdain for democracy both with his attempts to consolidate power in his own country and with his repeated praise for autocrats like Vladimir Putin. The Trumpist worldview is a version of 'might makes right' that encourages like-minded leaders to use their own power to crush internal opposition. However, there is a glimmer of hope in Trump's influence over Erdoğan: this is a sign that Erdoğan can be influenced by the attitudes of foreign governments. Like every country, Turkey needs to care about its relations with the rest of the world. Other democracies, including European countries, Canada, Japan, and India, have reasons to be disturbed by Erdoğan's recent moves. Even Trump has reasons to be concerned.

Turkey's slide toward Islamist extremism shows that it could become another country that supports terrorism and threatens Israel. The most obvious potential for instability is in Syria, Turkey's southern neighbor, which is trying to get rid of Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship. Political leaders in Europe who are worried about Putin's ambitions and the rise of authoritarianism in Hungary should be worried that Turkey is another sign that democracy is in retreat. Europe has leverage to influence Erdoğan: Germany is Turkey's largest trading partner, and several other Western European countries are not far behind.

"DOING THIS REQUIRED COURAGE"

By speaking up, these countries could make Erdoğan's life less comfortable. They can make it clear that Turkey is risking cooperation on a wide range of issues that are important to it, such as trade, migration, and military supplies. The rest of the world may not be able to prevent Turkey's slide into authoritarianism and extremism. But it must certainly try.

Following İmamoğlu's arrest, hundreds of thousands of Turks filled the streets with the largest protest demonstrations in recent years. Doing this required courage. The authorities responded by arresting hundreds of protesters, many of whom are facing trumped-up charges. Their courage deserves more than global silence.”