Retired diplomat Onur Öymen warns: ‘There will be international repercussions’

Evaluating the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran and their future dimensions for 12punto, Öymen said, “Global effects have already begun to be seen. First, in the energy sector, in the oil sector, and regarding economies in general... That is the first point. Second, it has increased the risk of the war spreading. Now, other Gulf countries have also been exposed to the war in some way. In other words, the risk of the war expanding has emerged. It will naturally have effects on the East-West balance in general. The situation of China is special because China was receiving the largest share of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. China's needs were being met most from the Strait of Hormuz. The China factor will come to the fore. In short, there will be enormous international repercussions,” he said.

On the other hand, while stating that the NATO factor would come to the fore, Öymen said, “Trump said unexpected things about NATO: ‘Without the US, NATO is a paper tiger.’ It is certain that such an address to an organization of which he is also a member will create discomfort among NATO countries, and the issue of how much NATO countries can trust America's cooperation in the long term or how much they can rely on the assurances given by America will come to the agenda,” he said.

‘TURKEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO’

Claiming that the idea of a European Army has come to the fore in response to Trump's rhetoric about NATO, Öymen stated that this would also have repercussions for Turkey.

Öymen spoke as follows: “This will also have repercussions for Turkey because in NATO, Turkey has equal rights and an equal say along with all other members; all members have veto power there. However, when it comes to a European Army, Turkey is not a member of the European Army, and while European Union countries will be able to be members of such a security organization, Turkey will not be able to.

For this, they established a system called ‘SAFE’, a financial support system of 145 billion euros, and this money will essentially go to these countries. Apart from that, some countries like Norway, Iceland, and Ireland will also get small shares, but not only is there no sign that Turkey will benefit from this, but in fact, Turkey will face obstruction from Greece and the Greek Cypriots (who were also made members there contrary to treaties, to the European Union).

Additionally, I repeat, a fund has been established for this. Member countries are already creating projects to import and produce for their defense industries. The European Union has started to finance these projects. One of the first to create a project is the Greek Cypriot side. It is a wrong step”...

‘IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT THEY WILL DO’

Regarding the “Decision on the Transit Passage and Re-export under Transit Trade of War Vehicles and Equipment, Weapons, Ammunition and Their Spare Parts, Military Explosives, and Technologies Related to Them through the Turkish Customs Territory,” published with the signature of AKP President Erdoğan on March 17, 2026, Öymen responded to the question, ‘Is the March 1st Memorandum coming back to the agenda?’ by saying, “For now, they do not need it. Because American troops are already in the Gulf. It seems highly likely that they will launch an amphibious operation from there, and it does not seem very likely for now that they would come through Turkey, that is, by land through Tabriz, while there are ships in the Gulf to launch an operation from. But if a larger land war breaks out, then one must consider all possibilities among the results it will produce. Because it is not clear what they will do. It is unpredictable because one day he says the opposite of what he said the next day. Therefore, if you consider all these elements together, it can be said that this event may not stay here. If for one reason or another they feel or realize that they are also starting to suffer damage, then perhaps they may look for a way to end this war early,” he replied.

On the other hand, Öymen said, “But there is also a possibility that this war will be more long-term and gain a land dimension, costing more human lives, and becoming a second Vietnam or a second Afghanistan incident. In that respect, the priority goal of all states, especially Turkey, is to establish a ceasefire and put a peace process into effect,” he said.

‘CONTRARY TO REASON’

Regarding the arrival of the MSC Vega ship, which provides logistical support to Israel, and the government's transit passage decision, Öymen remarked, “While our region is living in a war environment, one must first approach news and comments to be published on this and similar issues with caution. It would be contrary to reason for Turkey to follow an approach that would pave the way for directly or indirectly helping Israel, which started the war in violation of international law and the UN Charter.”

News: Cenk Başboğaoğlu

News Source: Cenk Başboğaoğlu