Critical warning from Osman Bektaş for 2 provinces in the Black Sea: Risk increases in 6.6 earthquake scenario

Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş made assessments regarding the earthquake risk for the Trabzon–Rize coastline, noting that the highest earthquake magnitude predicted for the region is 6.6, and drew particular attention to the soil structure.

WARNING ON SOIL IMPACT ALONG THE COASTLINE

Making a statement via his social media account, Bektaş stated that according to Kandilli data, the largest earthquake magnitude expected on the Trabzon–Rize coast is approximately 6.6. However, he emphasized that this magnitude alone is not sufficient to define the risk.

Prof. Dr. Bektaş said the following:

"However, these values do not fully reflect the true risk in the region. This is because micro-earthquakes seen in the coastal section, even if not directly destructive, pose a significant threat to reclaimed areas and landslide zones. The main reason for this is that beach sands and artificial fills amplify earthquake waves. These soils can increase the intensity of the shaking by 2–3 times (soil amplification)."

LANDSLIDE AND LIQUEFACTION RISK STANDS OUT

Pointing out that landslide areas and reclaimed soils in the region pose additional risks, Bektaş stated that urbanization increases this risk.

"On the other hand, landslide zones overloaded with housing become much more sensitive, especially during rainy periods," said Bektaş, adding, "Such areas can easily be reactivated by the effect of an earthquake (landslide triggering). For this reason, a moderate-magnitude earthquake that may occur in the region has the potential to cause much greater damage than expected. Furthermore, the risk of soil liquefaction in loose and water-saturated soils along the coast is also quite high. This situation can lead to serious deformations in the foundations of structures."

Bektaş pointed out that not only local but also distant earthquakes can affect the coastal soil, drawing attention to the fact that the risk is more extensive than assumed.

"On the other hand, not only earthquakes in the immediate vicinity but also moderate and large earthquakes occurring far away can affect coastal soils. In line with all these scientific facts, AFAD increased the earthquake hazard of the Trabzon–Rize region by approximately 2–3 times in 2018 compared to previous assessments. As a result, the seismicity observed between 2023–2025 clearly shows that coastal fills and landslide zones are under serious risk. However, it is observed that this situation has not been sufficiently taken into account to date."

News Source: 12punto