Europe's roadmap to be determined: First critical election after Brexit

12punto.com.tr /EXCLUSIVE Yaren ŞAHİN- Strasbourg

The European Parliament (EP) is an important institution at the heart of the European Union's (EU) democratic structure, attracting the attention of both European citizens and the international community. The Parliament regulates legislation, approves the EU budget, and makes decisions that affect every aspect of life for the EU.

The 2024 European Parliament elections are the first to be held since the United Kingdom officially left the EU in 2020 (Brexit). Brexit caused significant political and economic changes for both the United Kingdom and the EU. It also changed the number and distribution of seats in the European Parliament. The 73 seats allocated to the United Kingdom were redistributed among the other member states. Given that British members of parliament mostly represented conservative and center-right parties, the influence of these parties in the parliament has diminished. After Brexit, approaches favoring integration and social policy have found more support. More ambitious goals regarding climate change and environmental policies have been brought to the agenda. This has allowed center-left and environmentalist parties to gain relative strength.

The parliament, which consisted of 705 seats between 2019 and 2024, will consist of 720 seats in the 5-year period between 2024 and 2029, an increase of 15 members. European Parliament elections are conducted according to the electoral laws of each member state. The number of representatives is determined in accordance with the populations of the member states. This system ensures that votes are represented as fairly as possible in the distribution of representatives. For example, while Germany has the most representatives with 96, small countries like Malta and Luxembourg have 6 representatives. However, the number of representatives of member states in the European Parliament is not important. In the European Parliament, members are grouped not by country, but by their political leanings.

The Parliament consists of 7 political groups and independents. The European People's Party (EPP) is the center-right party that includes Christian democrats in Europe and is the leading party with 178 representatives. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which brings together social democrats and is center-left, is the second-largest political party in the parliament with 140 representatives. Liberal Renew, as the 3rd party, represents pro-Europeans and advocates for the deepening of EU integration.

POLLS AND POSSIBLE ELECTION RESULTS

The 2024 elections could lead to significant changes in Europe's political landscape. While centrist parties (European People's Party, Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) are trying to maintain their current positions, the rise of far-right and populist parties is noteworthy. Two far-right groups are expected to grow. The European Parliament could have about thirty more members in these political groups compared to the current term.

The Identity and Democracy (ID) nationalists, which include members of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN), chaired by Marine Le Pen, and the Italian Lega, are expected to increase their seats by 23. This is the largest increase in any political group and could bring their number of representatives from 58 to 81. This could move ID from sixth to fourth place in the European Parliament.

The political group of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia), who recently joined the Reconquête party of French far-right leader Eric Zemmour, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), is also on the rise. By adding eight more members to the Eurosceptic group, the number of members, which was 68 at the end of the 2019-2024 term, could rise to 76. These parties share common ideas on anti-immigration and criticism of the EU.

Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV), which came first in the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands in November, is expected to win the most seats in the European Parliament. According to the latest polls, the far-right party has 21.3% of the vote. This is a huge leap for the Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant party, which could only get 3.5% of the vote in 2019.

With Europe's economic situation and the attacks of the far-right, it is thought that environmentalist parties (The Greens) could lose 20 seats in the parliament. The Greens had 72 seats in 2019. These parties demand the implementation of stronger policies on issues such as climate change and sustainable development. Cyrielle Chatelain, leader of the French environmentalist MPs, said, "We knew it would be a difficult campaign because we see reactionary movements rising across Europe." The European Greens warn that such a setback would jeopardize the EU's climate policies.

Polls show that interest in the upcoming European elections is low. The turnout, which was 50.1% in 2019, is estimated to be 48% in the upcoming elections. Interviewed on a television program, French President Emmanuel Macron called on his citizens to go to the polls on June 9, stating, "There is only one round. I say this because I always think of our British friends who did not go to vote on the day of Brexit."

(Yaren Şahin / Strasbourg)

News Source: 12punto