Expert committee's preliminary report released: How would Turkey be affected by a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the Aegean?

As seismic activity continues on and around Santorini Island, the potential effects of a possible 7.5 magnitude earthquake on Turkey have been documented in a report by Dokuz Eylül University. The report states that if the Greek islands were to experience a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, the Aegean region of Turkey would also feel the tremors. The research team, led by Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, Director of the Dokuz Eylül University Earthquake Research and Application Center, included academics from the university's Faculty of Engineering departments of geology and geophysics, as well as the Izmir Vocational School and the Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology. In their published preliminary report, the team highlighted that the fault on Santorini Island has the potential to produce an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude. According to the report, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake generated by this fault line would be felt at an intensity of 5 in Turkey. The team led by Sözbilir examined past earthquakes in the Aegean region to prepare the report. The report states that volcanic eruptions have occurred on Santorini Island in the past and that the fault around the island has produced earthquakes reaching 7.5 in magnitude.

IS THERE A TSUNAMI RISK?

According to the report, the Aegean coasts have been affected by tsunamis and volcanic eruptions caused by earthquakes for centuries. The team pointed out that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Santorini could trigger a tsunami that would also affect Turkey.

''Furthermore, the tsunami effect following the Santorini-Amorgos earthquake, which is accepted to have occurred on the Amorgos fault northeast of Santorini Island in 1956, has been modeled, and it is understood that tsunami waves had a small-scale impact at certain rates along the coastline between Çanakkale and Fethiye. In the event of such an earthquake recurring, it is predicted that tsunami waves on our coasts would reach a maximum height of 2 meters in certain sections of the southwestern coasts and penetrate up to 500 meters inland.

However, since we are 150-350 kilometers away from the fault northeast of Santorini Island that would generate the earthquake, the waves would reach our southwestern coasts in at least 30 minutes and our northwestern coasts in 3 hours. In this case, since we would be notified the moment the earthquake occurs, people would be able to move away from the coast, and thus no loss of life would occur if the tsunami threat were to materialize.''

The volcano on Santorini Island, where the earthquakes are occurring, last erupted in 1950. This eruption, which did not cause any destruction, is known as 'small-scale volcanic activity.' The largest volcanic eruption on the island was recorded as the 'Minoan Eruption,' which took place around 1600 B.C. The Minoan Eruption is known as one of the largest volcanic eruptions in world history. It is believed that the eruption also served as the source for many mythological stories.

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY IN TURKEY?

The report underlined that the probability of loss of life and property on the Aegean coast is low. On the other hand, citizens were warned to follow the statements of official institutions.

The report, which also recommended the creation of information notes for citizens to benefit from, included the following statements:

''Those in and around Santorini will feel a 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurring on the faults northeast of Santorini Island at an intensity of 9. Because Turkey is 150 to 350 kilometers away from the earthquake's epicenter, it will feel the earthquake at an intensity value of up to 5. In this case, the intensity of the earthquake reaching us will not cause any loss of life or property.

This is because the threshold value for loss of life and property in Turkey is an intensity of 8. Only in some of the residential areas on alluvial soil around Izmir, Kuşadası, and the Gulf of Gökova could the intensity value of the earthquake reach 8. In such areas, an inventory of buildings that cannot withstand an intensity of 8 must be taken, and precautions must be taken against them. On the other hand, such an earthquake would trigger a tsunami on the Aegean coasts. Therefore, it is important that people living on the coast are warned in time.''

News Source: 12punto