Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in latest US election polls: Gap closing in critical states

12PUNTO FOREIGN NEWS

According to a national poll conducted by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are effectively tied as the election campaign enters its final weeks. This situation is heightening the excitement for the presidential debate to be held on Tuesday.

According to the poll released on Sunday, Trump holds a one-point lead over Harris with 48 percent to 47 percent. The one-point margin falls within the poll's 3 percent margin of error. This means that it is possible for either candidate to win in the November 5 elections.

Additionally, a poll conducted by CBS/YouGov on Sunday showed a similarly tight race in key states; while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan (50%-49%) and Wisconsin (51%-49%), the two candidates appear to be tied in Pennsylvania.

While the Trump campaign has experienced a relatively volatile period in the weeks following Democratic President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race in July, the latest polls show that the base supporting Trump has consolidated and continues to support the Republican candidate.

The NYT poll showed that voters feel they need to learn more about Harris, while their views on Trump are largely set. In the poll, 28% of likely voters said they needed more information about the Democratic candidate, while only 9% said the same about Trump.

According to The Guardian's assessment, the polls indicate that the presidential debate on Tuesday could be a critical moment for the election. The newspaper also makes the following assessment:

'As Harris debates Trump for 90 minutes, she will have the opportunity to provide more details about her planned policies. The race is so close that even the support of a marginal group will be important for both candidates.'

Following the latest poll, Harris's campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon said the following in an email sent to supporters on Sunday:

'As Vice President Harris has said since day one, we are the underdogs in this race (referring to lobby groups, conventional media, and polls). We have a lot of work to do to ensure we win this November, and we will need to continue to raise money aggressively to do so.'

'The electoral college benefits the Republicans. Even in 2020, when the Biden-Harris campaign won more votes than any pair of candidates in history, the election came down to a margin of about 45,000 votes in swing states. This November, we expect the margins to be similarly razor-thin. Every single vote is critical.'

VOTERS ARE SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP'S MENTAL FITNESS

In the CBS poll, when voters were asked who possessed the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, Harris was ahead of Trump by a double-digit margin. 71% of participants stated that they did not like Trump's comments about the vice president and found them derogatory.

However, the polls revealed that the economy and inflation are significant factors in voters' intention to support Trump over Harris. Among white, non-college-educated voters, Trump was widely preferred (53%-27%) for providing economic opportunities to working-class people.

Polls in seven key swing states likely to determine the winner of the election also showed the race is very close. In the latest poll, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in Wisconsin (50%-47%), Michigan (49%-47%), and Pennsylvania (49%-48%).

A separate poll conducted by NYT/Siena, which focused only on these critical states last month, showed Harris leading Trump by a four-point margin, 50% to 46%.

Harris has been heavily involved in election activities since replacing Biden at the Democratic Party convention over the summer, but the Harris campaign has limited media visibility and minimized interviews. Instead of a media-focused campaign process, Harris prefers a campaign where she has direct contact with voters in electoral districts.

News Source: 12punto