How will Yahya Sinwar's death affect the balance of power and the process: 'Will Hamas collapse?'

The killing of Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces is being evaluated as an event that could profoundly affect not only the internal structure of Hamas but also the future of resistance movements in the Middle East and the strategic balances in the region. Here are the developments expected after Sinwar.

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How will Yahya Sinwar's death affect the balance of power and the process: 'Will Hamas collapse?'

Israel is presenting Sinwar's killing as a major military success. However, Israeli sources state that this event was not a planned assassination, but rather that military units in the field killed Sinwar as a result of a chance encounter.

For Israel, while this development is seen as a significant gain in terms of striking a direct blow to Hamas's military leadership cadre, the fact that the event was accidental raises questions about Israel's intelligence capacity within Hamas.

According to the report in Habertürk, although Sinwar's killing has left a significant void in Hamas's military wing, leadership losses in deep-rooted resistance movements like Hamas do not lead to the complete collapse of the organization. New leaders are expected to emerge after Sinwar. While Israel aims to weaken Hamas's resistance capacity with such assassinations, Hamas has the capacity to compensate for such losses thanks to its broad base and local support.

WHAT STEPS WILL HAMAS TAKE?

After Sinwar's death, a leadership race will likely begin within Hamas. The loss of a strategic leader like Sinwar in Hamas's military wing may weaken the movement's military operations in the short term. However, Hamas has experienced similar leadership losses in the past and has managed to compensate for these losses quickly.

Marwan Issa and Mohammed Deif are among the strongest candidates for Hamas's military leadership. Issa was one of the names closest to Sinwar in the execution of Hamas's military operations and has the capacity to take over his leadership. Deif, on the other hand, is a name who has been a target of Israel for years and is one of the most influential leaders behind Hamas's military strategies. Deif's leadership is seen as the strongest option to continue Hamas's military operations.

The political wing may come to the fore more after Sinwar's death. It is possible that Hamas will try to alleviate military pressure on Gaza by intensifying its diplomatic efforts. Leaders of the political wing may take steps to increase Hamas's legitimacy in the international arena and provide more support for the Palestinian cause. In this context, Hamas will need to strike a balance between military operations and diplomatic initiatives.

CHANGES TO OCCUR IN GAZA...

Sinwar's death may weaken military resistance in Gaza, but it will not stop it completely. Hamas is a structure that has managed to maintain its resistance against Israel for years with underground tunnels and guerrilla tactics. While damage to the military structure under Sinwar's leadership may lead to a weakening in Hamas's resistance power, it is possible for Hamas to recover as new military leaders step in during this process.

Other resistance groups in the region may also try to increase their own influence by taking advantage of Hamas's weakening during this process. Groups such as Islamic Jihad, in particular, may aim to fill the military void of Hamas by taking a more active role in military operations in Gaza. However, the support Hamas will receive from its regional allies, especially Iran and Hezbollah, will play a critical role in rebuilding its military capacity.

WILL HAMAS'S MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE?

The killing of Yahya Sinwar may create a weakening in Hamas's military infrastructure in the short term, but the organization is not expected to completely disintegrate. Hamas's resistance strategies have been built over the years on underground tunnels, missile systems, and broad base support. Therefore, this loss in military leadership may affect Hamas's operational capacity for a short time, but Hamas's past experiences and organizational structure will allow it to compensate for such losses quickly.

The military and logistical support that regional allies, especially Iran, will provide to Hamas will be an important factor in the organization's recovery.

News Source: 12punto