It could hit Earth in 2032... Which countries are at risk? It will create an impact equivalent to 500 atomic bombs

Engineer David Rankin and his team from NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project have mapped the regions that could be affected if the asteroid 2024 YR4 hits Earth. The study stated that there is a 2.3 percent probability of the asteroid hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. However, this rate may be updated with new observations.

The 2024 YR4 asteroid has been classified as a 3 on the Torino Scale. This means that there is a possibility of the asteroid hitting Earth. However, it was noted that the asteroid's diameter means the impact it would create would be significant at a local, rather than global, level. It was emphasized that the probability of asteroids in this category hitting Earth could be reduced to zero with more detailed calculations.

The regions where the asteroid could potentially hit start from the north of South America, cross the Pacific Ocean, and extend to South Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. According to the calculations, it was announced that India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador are at risk.

According to WIRED, if the 2024 YR4 asteroid were to hit, it could release energy equivalent to approximately 8 million tons of TNT. This is equivalent to 500 times the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The explosion could affect an area of 50 kilometers around the impact point.

Currently, the asteroid's diameter is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters. With observations to be made by the James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025, the exact size of the asteroid will be clarified. This data will help in calculating the impact risk more precisely.

COMPARED TO THE ASTEROID THAT HIT RUSSIA

Scientists state that 2024 YR4 is similar in size to the asteroid that hit the Tunguska region of Russia in 1908. In the Tunguska event, an explosion equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT occurred, and 80 million trees were destroyed over an area of 2,150 square kilometers. It is stated that a similar effect could be seen if 2024 YR4 were to hit.

David Rankin drew attention to the importance of the asteroid's composition. Rankin made the following statements:

'If the asteroid has a rocky structure, it could explode in the atmosphere. If it is made of iron, it could hit the surface and create a crater. Therefore, it is critical to understand its composition and size, as well as its orbit.'

Rankin and other astronomers are continuing their work to gather more information about the asteroid before 2032. This data will allow for a clearer understanding of the risk the asteroid poses to Earth.

News Source: 12punto