It was said it could hit Earth in 2032... NASA announced the new probability: The Moon is under threat

It has emerged that NASA kept its calculations regarding the asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032 hidden from the public. According to the claims, scientists estimated that the 200-meter-wide asteroid 2024 YR4 could have a probability of hitting Earth in 2032 as high as 20 percent. Statistical analyses showed that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth by April was quite high. With the latest calculations, the probability of impact has dropped to 1 in 20,000.

2024 YR4 was discovered last December and was placed at the top of NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk list. Initial estimates showed that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, was 1.2 percent.

Experts reported that if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it would release energy equivalent to the explosion of 7.7 megatons of TNT. This meant an explosion 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Additionally, it was estimated that it would create a 900-meter-wide crater on the surface.

Source: NASA

THE PROBABILITY HAD RISEN TO 1 IN 32

In the weeks following its discovery, the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth changed several times, rising to 3.1 percent on February 18. This caused the asteroid to receive three points on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The Torino scale defines this level as 'a collision probability that merits attention by astronomers and could lead to local destruction'.

Updated calculations made on February 20 showed that the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth dropped to 0.005 percent, or 1 in 20,000. Following this development, the asteroid's level on the Torino Scale was reduced to zero. This means the asteroid no longer poses a threat to Earth.

Richard P. Binzel, an astronomer and professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), provided the following information regarding 2024:

''You can think of Torino Scale Zero as a 'Nothing to Worry About' signal. This probability will continue to fluctuate, most likely dropping toward an even smaller extinction.''

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE CELESTIAL BODY HITS THE MOON?

Although 2024 YR4 does not pose a risk to Earth, there is still a possibility of it hitting the Moon. A NASA spokesperson stated that this probability is currently 1.7 percent. If it hits the Moon, the asteroid will create a 1.2-mile-wide crater on the surface. Experts stated that if this material were to enter Earth's atmosphere, it would most likely burn up.

David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, expressed the following regarding what could happen if the asteroid hits the Moon:

''There is a possibility of this ejecting some material back that could hit Earth, but I am quite skeptical that this would pose a major threat.''

NASA continues its observations even though 2024 YR4 no longer poses a threat. According to the European Space Agency, the James Webb Space Telescope will measure the size and orbit of the asteroid more accurately in March.

In 2028, 2024 YR4 will pass Earth at a completely safe distance. This passage will offer astronomers a new opportunity to study the characteristics of the asteroid.

News Source: 12punto