Statement from the historian who has correctly predicted US election results since 1984: 'That' candidate will win the election

12PUNTO FOREIGN NEWS

US presidential election forecasting expert and history professor Allan Lichtman held his traditional press conference at his home in the Bethesda neighborhood of Washington, which he conducts shortly before every presidential election. During the meeting, Lichtman announced his prediction that Democratic candidate Harris would win, and later explained to journalists how he determines the results.

Lichtman attempts to predict election outcomes using a method he developed himself, which he calls the '13 keys.' The history professor's primary focus is not on trying to predict voter behavior, but rather on subjecting candidates to a series of criteria.

Evaluating the incumbent administration according to 13 different criteria, Lichtman operates on the assumption that if the current administration is deemed to have failed in at least six of these criteria, the administration will change hands. 

In his statement to the US press, Lichtman did not shy away from criticizing election analyses based on polls. According to Lichtman, polls measure the 'very short-term' behavior of voters and are weak in terms of developing an inclusive perspective.

In his statement, Lichtman said, 'I don't like to speculate, because the devil is in the details, but my predictions can be seen as a great success.'

The only election where Lichtman's calculations did not predict the president was George W. Bush's victory in 2000. Lichtman had predicted that Democrat Al Gore would win the election, in which Gore won the popular vote but Bush secured victory through a Supreme Court decision.

News Source: 12punto