The Economist's take on 'Erdoğan': Repressive policies may backfire

As Turkey enters a new period of political tension with the opposition's growing resistance, analyses regarding Turkey continue to emerge from the international press. 

According to The Economist, while Erdoğan’s strategy of keeping his political rival away from elections may seem to have worked in the short term, the social and economic reactions triggered by İmamoğlu’s arrest have exceeded expectations. While the opposition has called for boycotts against companies close to Erdoğan, CHP leader Özgür Özel has demanded early elections. The government, in turn, has responded to these demands with further repression and detentions. 

The Economist emphasizes that this process is a clear sign that the government is attempting to suppress the opposition not through democratic means, but through repression. However, "It seems unlikely that İmamoğlu will be released from prison before the presidential elections..."

Here are the highlights from that article, titled 'The Turkish government is trying to overcome the crisis with repression'...

ONE PIECE OF BAD NEWS AND ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS FOR ERDOĞAN

The largest opposition rally in recent years has taken place. On March 29, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets demanding the release of Ekrem İmamoğlu, one of Turkey's most well-known political prisoners.

The country's mainstream media, however, turned a blind eye to this development:

State television provided tips for those wanting to become homeowners. One channel showed traffic police handing out candy to drivers. Another broadcast chefs preparing snacks for the Ramadan Feast.

This news blackout was another example of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s tight control over the media. Yet, it also revealed just how worried Erdoğan is about the potential consequences of his rival's arrest.

The good news for Erdoğan is this: The shockwaves that rattled Turkish markets following the detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Republican People's Party (CHP) presidential candidate, in front of his home on March 19 have largely subsided. Street protests have given way to more orderly CHP rallies. Furthermore, Erdoğan’s strategy of keeping the possibility of peace talks on the agenda to prevent Kurdish politicians from entering into full cooperation with the CHP seems to have worked.

WILL İMAMOĞLU BE RELEASED FROM PRISON?

Although the legal election date is 2028, it seems unlikely that İmamoğlu will be released from prison before the presidential elections, which are expected to be held earlier. Erdoğan knows well from his own experience that a short prison sentence can turn İmamoğlu into an unstoppable political figure. For this reason, Erdoğan is determined to ensure he stays inside for a long time.

However, the backlash to this move has been much greater than Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) expected. The opposition boycott launched against companies thought to be part of Erdoğan’s patronage network and firms advertising in government-friendly media outlets caught Erdoğan off guard.

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel accused Erdoğan of leading a “junta” administration and called for early elections. Erdoğan’s response was more repression; 11 people were detained in connection with the consumer boycott. On April 8, Erdoğan’s lawyers filed a criminal complaint against Özgür Özel on charges of “insulting the president.”

"THE ONLY WAY OUT MAY BE TO SUPPRESS THE CHP..."

This situation may be a harbinger of worse things to come. While stagnation persists despite some signs of improvement in the economy, Erdoğan and his circle may have decided that the only way out is to suppress the CHP. This could bring with it more arrests and attempts to replace the CHP leadership with more compliant figures. 

As Selim Koru of the Foreign Policy Research Institute puts it: “They may try to get out of this situation through repression. At the end of the day, they have no tolerance for a truly competitive opposition.”

News Source: 12punto