The Trump era has begun again: What awaits Turkey?

Following Trump's re-election in the 47th US presidential election, which the whole world followed with curiosity, the 12punto team asked an expert, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ayşe Nur Çetinoğlu Harunoğlu, a specialist in Turkish-American relations, about the future of US-Turkey relations.

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The Trump era has begun again: What awaits Turkey?

İlkcan KEMER - 12punto exclusive

Trump's re-election as president in the 47th US presidential election has sparked great interest worldwide. The victory of Trump in a race that was neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris is being evaluated as a triumph of populism in the US. So, how will Turkey-US relations be shaped during Trump's second term? Turkish-American relations expert Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ayşe Nur Çetinoğlu Harunoğlu answered 12punto's questions.

'THE PRESIDENT IS NOT THE ONLY DECISION-MAKER'

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nur Çetinoğlu Harunoğlu stated that the president is not the only decision-making element in the US administration, and that factors such as Congress, lobbies, and civil society also play an important role in determining policy. She remarked, "Whether the president is Harris or Trump, the US policy toward Turkey will not undergo a radical change. The US prioritizes its own interests in its relations with Turkey, based on a realist foreign policy."

THE ROLE OF CONGRESS IS IMPORTANT

Pointing out that the president cannot make decisions alone in America, Çetinoğlu underscored the balancing power of Congress: "Congress limits the president's room for maneuver in the US administration through a 'check-and-balance' system. In addition to this, many actors such as lobbies and the National Security Council play an effective role in decision-making processes. Therefore, Trump's unpredictable characteristics should not be exaggerated."

TRUMP'S DIFFERENCE: PERSONAL DIPLOMACY

Commenting on what sets Trump apart from other leaders, Çetinoğlu stated that he does not believe in traditional diplomacy. Çetinoğlu said, “Trump views foreign policy like a business and focuses on personal diplomacy. He wants to conduct diplomatic processes himself and hold negotiations personally behind closed doors. This attitude worries many countries, including Turkey."

A REMINDER OF 2017 IN TURKEY-TRUMP RELATIONS

There was a great sense of optimism in Turkey in 2017, during Trump's first presidential term. However, Çetinoğlu points out that many crises continued during this period. Reminding that problems remaining from the Obama era, such as the F-35 program, the PYD-YPG issue, and the extradition of Gülen, were not resolved during Trump's term, she said, “Contrary to expectations, the S-400, Iran, and Reza Zarrab issues also came to the agenda during the Trump era.”

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM: THE S-400 CRISIS

Çetinoğlu drew attention to the fact that the S-400 crisis, in particular, is one of the biggest sources of tension in Turkey-US relations:

"Debates continue in Congress over whether Turkey should be given F-16s or return to the F-35 program. Trump's unpredictability could be decisive in this process. If we recall the letter he sent to Erdoğan in the previous term, which was far from diplomatic norms, we are facing a leader who can do anything at any moment."

Trump's re-election is being evaluated as a victory for populism. Çetinoğlu said, "Trump's election is a victory for populism. Populism has become an inseparable part of the globalizing world." She emphasizes that Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and remarks against women are considered contrary to the founding values of the US.

Stating that the biggest threat to the US is a leader like Trump, Çetinoğlu referred to an article by John Mearsheimer published in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2017, highlighting the statement: "The greatest conspiracy facing the international liberal order led by America does not come from outside America, but from within." Çetinoğlu expressed that America, which became bogged down in wars in the Middle East after 9/11, will now go through another difficult process with Trump's unpredictable leadership.

A NEW ERA IN US-TURKEY RELATIONS

Trump's personal diplomacy approach and unpredictable attitude in Turkey-US relations may bring many uncertainties in the coming period. However, it seems that the US's institutions and check-and-balance mechanisms will continue to limit Trump's moves.

News Source: 12punto