Experts explain tremors in the Marmara: What is expected next?

Recent micro-earthquake activity recorded around the Adalar fault in the Sea of Marmara has caused public concern. The Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) announced that as of 3:00 PM, over 170 tremors had been recorded in the region.

Members of the AFAD Earthquake Science Board emphasized that there is no scientific basis for interpreting this activity as a "harbinger" or "precursor" to a major earthquake. Experts stated that the exact time of an earthquake cannot be known in advance and that small clusters of tremors do not, by themselves, create an expectation of a major earthquake.

Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir, Director of the Earthquake Research and Application Center at Dokuz Eylül University, said that over 170 micro-earthquake events, reaching a magnitude of 3.2, have occurred since Tuesday. Sözbilir reported that a significant portion of the earthquakes occurred at a point close to the Adalar fault and that, according to AFAD data, the tremors occurred at depths of 5 to 13 kilometers with varying focal mechanisms.

PANIC WARNING FROM EXPERTS

Earthquake Science Board member Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy also pointed out that faults can periodically produce small earthquakes and clusters of tremors. Ersoy stated that AFAD is monitoring developments and that there is no situation that requires citizens to panic.

Addressing social media posts claiming that "a big earthquake is coming," Ersoy said such claims are speculative. Ersoy stated, "It is not scientifically possible to know the exact time of an earthquake in advance."

Prof. Dr. Bahadır Aktuğ, a faculty member in the Department of Geophysical Engineering at Ankara University, stated that the current small-scale earthquakes do not provide sufficient data to draw definitive conclusions about the fault as a whole. Aktuğ noted that the seismicity is not progressing along the fault and that the activity is being observed in only a limited and local 7-kilometer section of the approximately 44-kilometer-long Adalar fault.

Prof. Dr. Şerif Barış, a faculty member in the Department of Geophysical Engineering at Kocaeli University, also stated that similar seismic activity is frequently experienced in Turkey, noting that there is no condition that a medium or large-scale earthquake must necessarily follow small earthquakes.

While experts emphasized that citizens should only take into account statements from AFAD and authorized institutions, they pointed out that the main agenda should be strengthening the building stock and increasing preparations against potential earthquakes.

News Source: 12punto