The preference of the 20 percent that determines election results has changed

Aksoy Research President Ertan Aksoy made assessments regarding the current inclination of the 20 percent voter group that is decisive on election results in Turkey. Aksoy stated that this voter base has recently shifted more clearly toward the opposition.

Speaking to the Cumhuriyet newspaper, Aksoy stated that 40 percent of voters in Turkey follow only the ruling front, while the other 40 percent follow only the opposition. Expressing that these two groups remain within their own political circles, Aksoy stated that the election result is shaped by the preference of the 20 percent segment located between the two blocks.

THE DECISIVE MASS OF THE ELECTION

Regarding the voter group that determines the election result, Aksoy said, “In Turkey, 40 percent only listen to the government. Another 40 percent only listen to the opposition. These two 40 percent groups are closed off in their own worlds. Whoever convinces the 20 percent in between wins.”

Touching upon the change in the political preference of this segment, Aksoy stated that the group in question has not yet reached the 30 percent level and that the ruling block has not regressed from 40 percent to 30 percent.

Stating that the orientation of the critical voter group has changed, Aksoy used the expressions, “The 20 percent in between, which determines the actual result, is taking a stance in favor of the opposition more decisively every passing day.”

ECONOMY IS ON THE VOTER'S AGENDA

Speaking about his observations in the field, Aksoy said that, unlike political debates and agendas highlighted in the media, the voter's primary agenda is the economy.

Using the phrase “net economy,” Aksoy stated that society is reacting to falling behind the economic level it had reached in the past. Stating that the current picture in voter behavior will not change if the impoverishment caused by inflation continues, Aksoy said, “As long as the impoverishment caused by inflation exists, this situation will not change.”

Arguing that there is a difference in approach in the opposition's assessments of the economic picture, Aksoy stated that it is not correct to define the current situation only as an “economic crisis.” He stated that there is no growth problem in Turkey in the current situation and that this is not reflected in unemployment figures.

GROWTH AND INFLATION PREFERENCE

Stating that the government has long preferred growth over inflation, Aksoy said that the risk of unemployment lies at the root of this approach.

Aksoy made the assessment, “The government has long preferred growth over inflation. Because if growth is sacrificed, this turns into unemployment, and what actually causes a loss of votes is unemployment.”

Stating that inflation can gain a manageable appearance with different policies, Aksoy expressed that periodically applied cheap credit and wage increases can create a temporary relief in the voter and that this can create a “monetary illusion.”

For this reason, Aksoy stated that a large-scale voter break from the government has not yet occurred. Stating that society is aware of economic problems, Aksoy expressed that the voter evaluates the hardship experienced primarily as “cost of living” rather than “unemployment.”

News Source: 12punto