How much will pensions be in January? 3 different scenarios have emerged

Calculations for the raise that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 are being recalculated based on inflation expectations for the second half of the year. The exact rate is not yet determined; the increase to be reflected in pension payments will become clear once the 6-month CPI data for the July-December period is finalized.

With the regulation made in July, the lowest pension was increased to 23,552 TL. According to current estimates, this amount is expected to rise to a level between 25,601 TL and 26,065 TL in January. In the highest scenario, the lowest pension will exceed the 26,000 TL threshold.

The first data point in the raise calculation was formed with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announcing July inflation at 1.78 percent. The August CPI data will be announced on September 3. The data to be released until the end of the year will determine both the raise rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and the outlook for civil servants and civil servant retirees.

THREE DIFFERENT INFLATION SCENARIOS

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's year-end CPI expectation rising to 28 percent has also updated salary estimates. In this scenario, the 6-month inflation in the second half of the year is projected to be 8.70 percent.

If the year-end inflation expectation in the Market Participants Survey settles at the 29.43 percent level, the 6-month raise rate rises to 9.92 percent. The 30.32 percent year-end expectation, which stands out in the Economic Outlook Index, pushes the 6-month increase to the 10.67 percent level.

These calculations show estimates based on current inflation expectations. The exact raise rate to be applied in January will become official after all CPI data for the second half of 2026 are announced.

News Source: 12punto