GÜNDEMAR poll: Striking results in the race between Erdoğan, Yavaş, Özel, and İmamoğlu
In GÜNDEMAR Research's July study, three separate scenarios were measured for a potential second round of the presidential election, pitting Recep Tayyip Erdoğan against Mansur Yavaş, Özgür Özel, and Ekrem İmamoğlu. In all three matchups, Erdoğan's opponents emerged ahead.
In GÜNDEMAR Research's Turkey Agenda Survey for July, potential second-round scenarios for the presidential election were measured. The study asked participants about three separate matchups in which AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faced Mansur Yavaş, Özgür Özel, and Ekrem İmamoğlu.
In the survey, conducted between July 28 and July 31, 2026, with 2,300 people across 60 provinces, "undecided," "no opinion," and "protest" responses were excluded from the calculation. The percentages were recalculated based on voters who chose one of the two candidates.
THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED IN ALL THREE SCENARIOS
According to the research, if Erdoğan and Mansur Yavaş were to face each other in a second round, Yavaş's vote share would be 60.17 percent, while Erdoğan's would be 39.83 percent. In this scenario, the gap between the two candidates was 20.34 percentage points.
In the scenario pitting Özgür Özel against Erdoğan, Özel reached 58.73 percent. Erdoğan's vote share in this matchup was calculated at 41.27 percent. The gap between the two figures was recorded as 17.46 percentage points.
In the scenario where Ekrem İmamoğlu faces Erdoğan, İmamoğlu's vote share was 57.47 percent. Erdoğan was measured at 42.53 percent in this matchup. The gap between them was announced as 14.94 percentage points.
According to the results, Mansur Yavaş achieved the highest vote share against Erdoğan among the three second-round scenarios. Yavaş was followed by Özgür Özel and Ekrem İmamoğlu. Erdoğan's vote share varied between 39.83 percent and 42.53 percent depending on the scenario.
GÜNDEMAR Research Chairman Prof. Dr. Tamer Bolat stated that the results reflect current voter trends but should not be considered a definitive election prediction. According to Bolat, the clarification of candidacies, campaign performance, alliance preferences, and the election agenda could lead to changes in the percentages.
News Source: 12punto
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