Expert report submitted to the case file: No earthquake risk report obtained for the İliç mine

Ersin Eroğlu/ 12punto EXCLUSIVE

The expert report has been submitted to the case file in the lawsuit filed by Sedat Cezayirlioğlu against the ministry regarding the 'EIA Positive' report granted to the Çöpler gold mine, which is operated by Anagold Madencilik, a joint venture between the US and Canada-based SSR Mining and its local partner Çalık Holding, in İliç, Erzincan.

In the lawsuit filed by Sedat Cezayirlioğlu against the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change regarding the 'Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) positive' decision granted on October 7, 2021, for the Çöpler Complex mine's 2nd capacity increase and flotation plant project, 15 experts listed the deficiencies in the EIA report.

With the exception of Serhat Vançelik, who was appointed as an expert on public health during the trial process and whose removal was requested by Cezayirlioğlu and his lawyer on the grounds of his proximity to the government, the other experts provided negative assessments regarding the mine.

The findings regarding the deficiencies in the 'EIA positive' report, which were examined under 13 headings in the expert report, are summarized as follows:

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

“No static calculation report, earthquake performance report, or material quality control report could be found in the file and its annexes regarding the pipeline in question or the steel structures where various chemicals are included in the processes. It is obvious that the region contains an earthquake risk due to its geographical location. The point that must be considered here is that the structures where chemicals are processed and transported should not suffer damage in the event of a potential earthquake. There is no earthquake performance report for these structures. For these structures, it is unclear how the earthquake performance report, the properties of the materials used, the geometry, design details, the resistance of the relevant structures to earthquake loads, their load-bearing capacities, and local soil conditions yield results in structures such as the chemical preparation building. Furthermore, the effects of the chemicals used on the durability of the steel construction over time must also be taken into account. The absence of an earthquake performance report for such a facility, which has no alternative location, is a deficiency.”

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF MINING ENGINEERING

In the EIA report for the mining operation, the assessments regarding the environmental impacts of the blasting to be carried out in the pits were based on residential areas located outside the operational EIA area. It was evaluated that these residential units would remain outside the effects of vibration, air shock, and rock scattering caused by blasting at the facility.

Regarding the risk of air pollution that may arise from the transport of very fine-grained particles in the waste accumulated in the Heap Leach Facility (ADT) as a result of tank leaching via wind erosion, it was concluded that the 'Environmental Impact Assessment Positive' decision granted for the Çöpler Complex Mine 2nd Capacity Increase and Flotation Plant Project is inappropriate, as no scientific or technical environmental impact assessment was conducted in the Final EIA Report for this project.

In the Final EIA Report for the Çöpler Complex Mine 2nd Capacity Increase and Flotation Plant Project, an environmental impact assessment was conducted only in terms of HCN emissions regarding the use of evaporators; no scientific or technical assessment was made regarding the risk of air pollution that could arise from the possibility of very fine solid mineral particles being present in the water sent to the evaporator. Based on this reasoning, it was concluded that the 'Environmental Impact Assessment Positive' decision granted for the project is inappropriate, as the use of evaporators in the ADT could be problematic and should not be used without a sufficient environmental impact assessment.

Due to the situation that emerged following the landslide on February 13, 2024, in the ore piles at the heap leach facility where ores produced by previous mining activities (initial operation and 1st capacity increase) at the Çöpler Complex Mine were processed, the existing environmental impact assessments for the operation are no longer valid. For this reason, it was concluded that the 'Environmental Impact Assessment Positive' decision granted for the project is inappropriate, as it is impossible to evaluate whether the waste management of the 'Çöpler Complex Mine 2nd Capacity Increase and Flotation Plant Project'—the subject of the lawsuit—complies with the rules, technical criteria, and threshold values determined in national and international legislation without a new 'Environmental Impact Assessment' for the operation in its current state.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

When evaluated in terms of regional agricultural lands, pasture areas, and livestock, the data from the Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry, the 2021 Environmental Status Report of Erzincan Province, and the EIA report were carefully examined, and it was assessed that the prepared EIA report is sufficient to explain the agricultural structure. When the EIA report is evaluated in terms of current status determination, agricultural structure, product pattern, and livestock activities, it has been prepared in accordance with the procedure. Considering the reports belonging to the region examined during and after the discovery, it was understood that the mining area has disrupted the agricultural structure in many ways and has negatively affected the livestock farming that was previously predominantly carried out in the region. The rehabilitation works to be carried out to eliminate these negativities are also detailed in the EIA report. It is understood that these will mostly be in the form of social assistance and agricultural project support. The continuity and effectiveness of these works should also be monitored. A comprehensive assessment from an agricultural perspective can only be revealed as a result of observations and evaluations to be made by the Erzincan Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry and the İliç District Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry. The pre-existing product diversity and yield, livestock potential, and product quantity in the region, as well as the post-mining status, can be explained by the aforementioned institutions through long-term data acquisition.

FROM A BIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE

The most current and comprehensive study conducted on fauna and flora in the region is the 2017 'Erzincan Province Terrestrial and Inland Water Ecosystems Biodiversity Inventory and Monitoring Work Final Report.' The report in question was carefully examined, and it was evaluated that there is no additional situation to be considered other than what is stated in the EIA report. Fauna and flora studies in the project area are carried out by a large team of experts. Although not a legal requirement, the employment of a full-time biodiversity expert to coordinate these studies has been recorded as a positive value. The effects of the project on flora and fauna (existing species, locations of endemic species, locations with important plant areas, and habitats of endangered fauna species, if any) and the ecosystem during the construction and operation periods are detailed in the EIA report and are sufficient. For this reason, it was observed that the EIA report was prepared in accordance with the procedure, is technically sufficient and appropriate, the potential negativities that could negatively affect fauna and flora were examined in detail, the necessary and sufficient measures in this regard were clearly stated, and significant efforts were made for rehabilitation works. Therefore, it was concluded that there is no situation hindering project activities in the area in terms of flora (plant life) and fauna (animal life), and that the landslide accident that occurred after the expert assignment caused the loss of some camera traps used to monitor animals but did not affect or change the above evaluations.

REGARDING SEISMICITY

As a result of the observations made during the site inspection, the information in the file, and the evaluations conducted:

-The presence of active fault lines with the potential to generate earthquakes in the region where the project is located,

-The failure to consider the Divriği fault, located just west of İliç, in the EIA Report,

-The horizontal earthquake acceleration used in the design of the waste area project sites being quite low (0.2g) for such a sensitive engineering structure intended for long-term service,

-The lack of necessary diligence in the preparation of the Geotechnical Report,

-The presence of numerous typographical errors in the sections containing geophysical measurements conducted to determine the underground structure, and the existence of certain errors in the use of geophysical parameters and geological terms,

-The failure to take into account the low-velocity zone in the underground geological structure of the project site

-Due to the disregard for the existing landslide within the project site, it is concluded that in the event of a possible earthquake, landslide, or similar disaster, the engineering structure of the Çöpler Complex Mine 2nd Capacity Increase and Flotation Plant Project could be damaged. Therefore, it is the opinion and conclusion that the relevant 'Environmental Impact Assessment Positive' decision is not appropriate in its current form from the perspective of public interest, and that the relevant sections of the EIA Report should be prepared again.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

In light of the evaluations made, observations during the site inspection, and information in the file, the following conclusions have been reached:

Regarding surface water resources, it is observed that since the data for the years 2006-2020 in the EIA report are presented with a single average value per parameter, the year-on-year change in the impact of mining activities prior to 2020 could not be evaluated reliably, while the analysis results provided for 2021 and onwards remain below the limit values specified in the Surface Water Quality Regulation (YSKY). Regarding groundwater, since the values of the relevant parameters prior to 2020 were not presented, the year-on-year change in the impact of mining activities before 2020 could not be evaluated reliably; it was determined that in the analysis results provided for 2021 and onwards, the Fe, Pb, Mn, As, B, Al, and Ni parameters exceeded limit values in certain periods, although they varied according to sampling points. Regarding soil quality, according to the analysis results, Sb, As, and Bi values at some points are above crustal values, and at some points, Ca, Pb, Mn, Mo, Ni, Se, Ag, and Zn values are above crustal values, a situation associated with mineralization; these presented analysis results are identical to the data presented in the 2014 EIA report, and there are no recent soil sample analysis results representing the current soil quality. In the analysis results covering the years 2022-2023, it is observed that As, Ni, and Co parameters in all soil samples, and Cu and Pb parameters at some points, exceed the limit values given in the legislation. It is observed that the results of instantaneous PM10 and deposited dust measurements taken to determine air quality do not exceed the limit values given in the legislation; similarly, the monthly PM10 measurement results for the Sabırlı and Çöpler stations between 2021-2023 do not exceed the limit values presented in the annex of the Industrial Air Pollution Control Regulation (SKHKKY), and the measurement results for hydrogen cyanide carried out in and around the facility area between 2018-2020 remain below the limit value. Regarding noise pollution, it is possible to say that all noise measurement results do not exceed the limit values presented in the annex of the Environmental Noise Assessment and Management Regulation (ÇGKY). When evaluating the situation after the landslide, it is predicted that the total cyanide value in the soil analyses is noteworthy and poses an environmental risk. Similarly, it is assessed that parameters such as As, Hg, Cd, and Pb have an upward trend in the soil structure in samples taken after the landslide and pose a long-term environmental risk. Considering the measurement results for HCN and PM10 parameters in air quality after the landslide, it is possible to say that there is no situation that poses a risk. When evaluating the analysis results of surface and groundwater, it can be said that there is no situation that would cause a problem for human and environmental health in the short term after the landslide.

However, in order to fully evaluate the long-term effects of such accidents, it is considered appropriate to continue sampling and analysis studies in the region and to calculate the extent to which various pollutants can be transported in soil, water, and the atmosphere by using the various data obtained as input for relevant computer software. It is observed that the risk situations and measures to be taken foreseen in the project are presented in Table III.22 and Table III.23 of the EIA report. The report also states that 'although local landslides are likely to occur in the field under dynamic load in the heap leach area, there will be no instability that would disrupt the integrity of the structure.' However, contrary to this finding, the fact that an area of 428,684.98 m² in the heap leach area slid on 13.02.2024, leading to a disaster and the loss of 9 workers' lives due to the landslide, shows that such a risk could not be foreseen in the EIA report and necessary precautions could not be taken. This situation is seen as a very significant deficiency of the EIA report. Furthermore, the absence of pre-2020 values in the previously mentioned analyses of groundwater at relevant points, the insufficient evaluation of the impact of mining activities based on surface water quality, and the lack of recent data representing current soil quality are also considered among the significant deficiencies of the EIA report.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FOREST ENGINEERING

As a result of all these evaluations, observations made during the site inspection, and information in the file;

-It has been concluded that within the scope of the 2nd Capacity Increase project subject to the lawsuit, the site is forest land with sparse canopy, and it is not an economically productive forest area, and because a portion of it is forest soil, it does not constitute productive operating areas.

It has been concluded that while forest areas will be damaged due to the removal of forest cover as a result of mining activities in the project area, this will not have a negative impact on forestry operations in economic terms. It has been concluded that the area will be rehabilitated after the completion of the work, that five times the number of trees cut down will be planted, and that the damage caused in this way can be eliminated; in this context, it has been concluded that the measures taken to eliminate the damage will be sufficient.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF GEOLOGICAL ENGINEERING

Considering the geological characteristics, tectonic structure, and topographic features of the region where the project is located, it is observed that it has high sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. The rock type properties, bedding structures, and discontinuity planes of the geological units in the project area weaken the strength characteristics of the rock masses. The faults directly affecting the project site and the North Anatolian Fault Zone, which is Turkey's most important fault line located very close to the project site, make the region significant in terms of earthquakes. Large earthquakes that will occur on local faults and the North Anatolian Fault Zone will affect the project site and cause various problems. The presence of high-slope hillsides in the project area increases the region's sensitivity to external factors. Due to the high slope, landslides are expected to occur during rainy periods, in the event of an earthquake, and during construction activities to be carried out on the site. The region where the project is located has a high potential for natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, and avalanches. In the event of these disasters, it will cause damage to transportation roads, facilities, electricity and water transmission lines, and machinery and equipment in the project area. Furthermore, the probability of such disasters causing loss of life is also very high.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HYDROGEOLOGY

A detailed evaluation was made in section 6.10 by examining the EIA report prepared for capacity increase at the mine site and previously prepared reports. I am of the opinion that the current situation and the capacity increase will pollute the groundwater and, consequently, the Karasu River, due to the fact that the geological units in the study area exhibit permeable characteristics, especially at the boundaries of the recharge basin and the mining operation area, that the flow directions of groundwater and surface waters are towards the Karasu River and feed this river, and that the operation site is in the Karasu River recharge basin.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING

The mining area has not been incorporated into the relevant Environmental Plan (Erzurum-Erzincan-Bayburt Planning Region 1/100,000 Scale Environmental Plan, plan sheet no. J41). Since the decision for the mining area is not reflected as a planning decision in the relevant Environmental Plans, it is not in compliance with the Environmental Plans. There is no 1/5000 scale Master Development Plan or 1/1000 scale Implementation Development Plan covering the project area. In addition to the situation regarding the plans; I am of the opinion that the EIA Report is not suitable in these respects due to the mining area being located a few hundred meters close to nearby settlements, pastures, and production areas such as gardens, being on one of the sub-basins feeding the Euphrates-Tigris Basin (Euphrates-Bağıştaş Sub-basin), the socio-economic assessment not being conducted specifically for the region, the local people having negative opinions regarding the capacity increase of the facility, the absence of a Stakeholder Engagement Plan in the EIA report, the heap leach facility being located very close to the Euphrates River and Çöpler Village, and the ADT I and ADT II project areas being located on the stream beds that feed the Sabırlı Creek and therefore the Euphrates River.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF METEOROLOGICAL ENGINEERING

Analyses regarding how the facility might negatively impact environmental pollution, taking meteorological factors into account, were attempted to be expressed using AERMOD model outputs. Primarily, the ground and upper-level meteorological parameters used as inputs for the model will not fully represent the facility site. Regarding potential negative impacts, comprehensive analyses on how necessary precautions and risk planning would be prepared under variable atmospheric conditions (especially in cases where severe weather conditions occur) were not presented in the final EIA report. In terms of natural disasters such as avalanches, floods, and landslides, the final EIA report generally mentions that the probability of observing such events in the region is low.

For example, no necessary precautions or risk planning have been made regarding a potential avalanche event. Meteorological measurements and observations have ultimately been conducted for a certain period. The recurrence intervals of atmospheric events that may be rare for the region can change depending on regional climate change. For a facility of this size, it is necessary to make the required precautions and risk plans by assuming the probability of all conditions occurring. - The final EIA report states that an evaporator will be used if deemed necessary. However, the analyses conducted regarding potential negative impacts related to the use of the evaporator were considered only in terms of HCN. On the other hand, there is a possibility that very fine-grained structures classified as hazardous waste exist within the Waste Storage Facility (ADT). Therefore, it is inevitable that these very fine-grained hazardous wastes will mix into the air while excess water in the ADT is sprayed into the air with the help of an evaporator. There is a need for an in-depth and detailed examination of hazardous wastes that will remain suspended in the air and be transported from the source region by the effect of the wind under variable atmospheric conditions. For all these reasons, it is necessary to prepare analyses and potential scenarios regarding not only HCN but also very fine-grained hazardous wastes that have the potential to exist in an undissolved state in the ADT in relation to the use of the evaporator. Furthermore, in the use of evaporators, atmospheric conditions should not be prepared based solely on wind speed and direction information; evaluations should be provided by considering various atmospheric events and many variable meteorological parameters.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PUBLIC HEALTH

It has been determined that the parameters measured in surface and groundwater and observation wells as a result of production activities at the Gold Mine located in the Çöpler village area of İliç district are in compliance with the relevant legislation and that waste management is in accordance with scientific literature methods. Wastewater resulting from production accumulates in a dam-like pool (Waste Storage Facility) covered with an impermeable layer at the bottom and is controlled through environmental groundwater measurements. It was concluded that the design parameters and monitoring methods are appropriate. However, it was considered more appropriate to send the same samples to a second accredited laboratory for cross-checking of the results. It has been determined that various ministries and institutions have taken intensive measures following the landslide that occurred around the Çöpler Anagold gold mine site on February 13, 2024. Thanks to these measures, the risks that arose have been brought under control; accordingly, based on the results of surface and groundwater analyses and air quality analyses, no situation threatening human health has been identified in the current state.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERING

The subject that can be evaluated from the perspective of chemical engineering is the section regarding the use of an evaporator. My opinion on this matter is that the use of an evaporator is not mandatory. Other advanced wastewater treatment techniques can be used for water management.

THOSE WHO SIGNED THE REPORT

The experts who signed the report are as follows:

Prof. Dr. Abdulkadir Cüneyt Aydın, Prof. Dr. Serhat Vançelik, Prof. Dr. Murat Erdemoğlu, Prof. Dr. Bahar Kocaman, Prof. Dr. Ümit İncekara, Prof. Dr. Nafiz Maden, Prof. Dr. Alper Nuhoğlu, Prof. Dr. Erhan Çalışkan, Prof. Dr. Ekrem Kalkan, Prof. Kerim Aydıner, Prof. Dr. Selçuk Alemdağ, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zeynel Öztürk, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tunç Dede, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Gül Şimşek, and Asst. Prof. Dr. Veli Yavuz

News Source: 12punto