Naci Görür reiterates his warning for Marmara! 'Probability of an earthquake at any moment...'

Seismologist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür issued striking warnings regarding the major earthquake expected in the Marmara region. Reminding that the fault line located in the middle of the Sea of Marmara has not ruptured since 1766, Görür highlighted the scale of the risk with the words, "The probability of an earthquake occurring at any moment within 30 years from 1999 is 47 percent, according to today's revised figure."

"AFTER 1999, THE NEXT PLACE IS ISTANBUL"

Emphasizing that alarm bells have been ringing in the Marmara region since the Gölcük earthquake, Görür drew attention to the warnings they have been issuing since 1999, stating, "Istanbul is next." Pointing out that the crust beneath the Sea of Marmara is accumulating energy, the experienced scientist said that the rupture of the fault in the region has now become inevitable.

"THE KUMBURGAZ SEGMENT COULD PRODUCE AN EARTHQUAKE ABOVE 7"

Touching upon the scientific research they have conducted in the Sea of Marmara with international teams, Görür stated that the segment located off the coast of Kumburgaz poses a serious threat. He drew attention to the gravity of the potential scenario with the statement, "When this segment ruptures, it has the potential to produce an earthquake above 7."

"NOT JUST BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE IS ALSO IMPORTANT"

Görür stated that the measures to be taken against earthquakes cannot be limited to building reinforcement. Speaking to Nefes Gazetesi, Görür said, "In a city, not only building structural integrity but also infrastructure is important," pointing out that if the infrastructure collapses, livability will disappear even if the buildings remain standing.

"THIS IS NOT A CONTRACTING ACTIVITY"

Stating that it is wrong to leave earthquake preparedness solely to the construction sector, Görür argued that municipalities must establish comprehensive coordination structures. According to him, this structure should encompass different areas such as management, the public, infrastructure, building stock, the environment, and the economy.

"THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD EXIST IN EVERY PROVINCE"

Görür said that similar structures should be established not only in metropolitan cities but in all provinces that carry earthquake risk. He expressed that local governments and the public must abandon negligence, saying, "Whether an earthquake happens or not, whether it is small or large, it does not matter. You must take your precautions. Better safe than sorry."

"RECONSTRUCTION IS BEING CARRIED OUT WITH THE SAME METHODS AFTER FEBRUARY 6"

Görür criticized the continuation of reconstruction in the regions destroyed after the February 6 earthquakes using the same old methods. He emphasized that the reconstruction process is far from scientific methods, stating, "The places destroyed after the February 6 earthquakes are being rebuilt with the same methods. However, special design, engineering, technology, and materials should be used in these regions."

"LIFE MUST BE SUSTAINABLE"

Stating that earthquake discussions in Istanbul are often confined to superficial questions such as "Is it pre-1999 or post-1999?", Görür used the following expressions while considering the entirety of the life cycle: "Your neighbor's house has collapsed, transportation has collapsed, there is no food; what does it matter if your house is sturdy? Life must be sustainable."

THE REAL SURVIVAL ISSUE: THE IMPORTANCE OF MARMARA

According to Görür, Marmara does not only carry a geological risk; it is also Turkey's economic heart. "If Marmara goes, Turkey loses its economic and political independence. This is the real survival issue," he said, highlighting how a potential destruction would affect the entire country.

"THE MOST RISKY REGIONS ARE THE TUNCELI, BINGOL, AND ADIYAMAN LINE"

Touching upon dangers outside of Marmara, Prof. Dr. Görür pointed to the Tunceli-Bingöl line and the belt extending from Adıyaman to Hakkari as being among the regions with the highest earthquake risk in Turkey. He emphasized that some provinces in these regions have not yet experienced their major earthquakes.

Criticizing the insufficiency of the budget allocated to scientific research in Turkey, Görür stated that a portion of the resources spent on natural gas exploration should be allocated for earthquake preparedness.

Recalling his call to mayoral candidates during the local election process, Görür stated that his call for "Earthquake-Resilient Cities" did not find a response. According to Görür, approximately 400 candidates contacted him during the campaign process, but none of these candidates reached out after the elections.

"NEW BUILDINGS WILL INCREASE BUILDING DENSITY"

Criticizing the new construction projects planned in Istanbul, Görür stated that this situation would increase building density and further amplify the risk. He expressed that such dense construction in a city under earthquake threat is unacceptable.

REACTION TO THE "Kanal İstanbul" PROJECT

Finally, touching upon the Kanal İstanbul project, Görür explained the risks this project could create in light of scientific data as follows: "The part of the canal that opens to the sea intersects with active faults in the Marmara. If the fault is triggered, it will devastate the mouth of the canal up to Küçükçekmece. It is also not suitable in terms of rescue and aid. The picture painted by the government does not align with science."

News Source: 12punto