Central Bank interest rate decision awaited: What do the markets predict?

Fluctuations in the markets have increased interest in the Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision meeting. The sharp rise in exchange rates following the arrest of CHP's presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu was calmed by the Central Bank's intervention.

In light of these developments, foreign financial institutions and economists have updated their expectations for the TCMB's April meeting.

The Central Bank's interest rate decision meeting will be held on April 17, 2025, at 14:00, and the decisions taken will be published on the TCMB's official website on the same day.

There is a prevailing expectation across the market that interest rates will be kept constant.

Of the 21 economists who participated in the AA Finance survey, 19 predict that the policy rate will remain constant at 42.5 percent. Two economists expect a 350 basis point increase.

Experts state that the inflation figures for February have paved the way for an interest rate cut, but that this cut may remain limited due to inflation risks. The economists' year-end policy rate expectation is at the 34.50 percent level.

VIEWS OF FOREIGN INSTITUTIONS

Goldman Sachs economists believe that the TCMB could increase the policy rate by 350 basis points at or before its meeting on April 17.

Bank of America, on the other hand, is evaluating the possibility of the Central Bank making a 300-500 basis point increase in April.

LAST MONTH'S DECISION

In March, the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee decided to lower the policy rate from 45 percent to 42.5 percent. This decision was closely monitored in the markets.