With the release of the first three months of inflation data for the second half of 2026, calculations for the raise that civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive in January 2027 have returned to the agenda. The exact rate will be clarified after the CPI data for October, November, and December are released.
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, inflation was 1.78 percent in July, and 1.84 percent in both August and September. Thus, the cumulative inflation for the first three months of the second half of the year reached 5.57 percent.
For civil servants and civil servant retirees to receive an inflation adjustment, the six-month inflation must exceed the 7 percent threshold determined in the collective bargaining agreement. Therefore, the inflation rates for the last three months of the year will be decisive regarding the total increase to be reflected in salaries in January.
THREE DIFFERENT RAISE SCENARIOS
In the October 2026 Survey of Market Participants, the year-end inflation expectation was announced as 29.63 percent. If this expectation is realized, it is calculated that the six-month inflation will be at the 10.08 percent level, resulting in a 2.88 percent inflation adjustment for civil servants and civil servant retirees. With the addition of the collective bargaining agreement increase, the total raise rate is expected to reach 8.02 percent.
In this scenario, it is projected that the lowest civil servant salary, which was 70,224 TL in July, will rise to 75,856 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension, which was 31,527 TL and 77 kuruş, will rise to 34,055 TL.
Based on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's year-end inflation expectation of 28 percent, the six-month inflation is expected to be 8.70 percent, and the total salary increase is expected to be at the 6.67 percent level. According to this calculation, the lowest civil servant salary could rise to 74,908 TL, and the lowest civil servant retiree pension could rise to 33,631 TL.
If the 28.4 percent year-end inflation forecast in the Medium-Term Program (MTP) is realized, it is calculated that the six-month inflation will reach 9.04 percent. In this case, the total raise rate is expected to be 7 percent, with the lowest civil servant salary rising to 75,140 TL and the lowest civil servant retiree pension rising to 33,734 TL.
According to the 8.02 percent raise scenario in the Survey of Market Participants, the new salaries calculated for some professional groups are as follows:
| Title | Current salary | 8.02 percent scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Specialist doctor (1/4) | 170,730 TL | 184,406 TL |
| Professor (1/4) | 153,208 TL | 165,483 TL |
| Engineer (1/4) | 109,185 TL | 117,931 TL |
| Chief superintendent (3/1) | 101,242 TL | 109,354 TL |
| Police officer (8/1) | 92,618 TL | 100,041 TL |
| Specialist teacher (1/4) | 92,166 TL | 99,557 TL |
| Nurse (5/1) | 84,845 TL | 91,645 TL |
| Teacher (1/4) | 83,254 TL | 89,927 TL |
| Civil servant (9/1) | 73,070 TL | 78,929 TL |
| Lowest civil servant salary | 70,224 TL | 75,856 TL |
The exact increase to be reflected in salaries will be clarified in January with the application of inflation data for the last three months of the year and the provisions of the collective bargaining agreement.
News Source: 12punto
