Markets active ahead of interest rate decision: What is the latest on deposit rates?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will announce its September policy rate at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to be held on Thursday, September 11, 2025.

Market expectations are focused on the CBRT cutting the policy rate by 200 basis points from 43 percent to 41 percent, and this decision is expected to have a direct impact on bank deposit rates. Some banks have begun 200 basis point cuts in deposit rates without waiting for the MPC decision, which has led to volatility in the markets.

According to an expectations survey conducted with many economists, the majority predict that the CBRT will lower the policy rate by 200 basis points. While some economists foresee a 250 basis point cut, others anticipate a 300 basis point reduction. According to the survey, the median year-end policy rate expectation was calculated at 36.5 percent. At the MPC meeting held in July 2025, the interest rate was cut by 300 basis points, reducing it from 46 percent to 43 percent. This cut indicates that the decline in inflation and the slowdown in domestic demand are leading the CBRT toward a gradual easing policy.

CBRT Governor Dr. Fatih Karahan stated in the third Inflation Report of the year that they have maintained the 2025 year-end inflation forecast at 24 percent, while revising the 2026 forecast from 12 percent to 16 percent, and the 2027 forecast from 8 percent to 9 percent. These revisions suggest that interest rate cuts may continue in a controlled manner.

RAPID DECLINE IN BANK DEPOSIT RATES

Some banks, acting without waiting for the MPC decision, have sent an early signal to the market by lowering deposit rates by 200 basis points. Following the 300 basis point cut in July, deposit rates at banks had fallen from the 49-50 percent band to the 43-46 percent levels. An authorized source stated, “A 200 basis point cut in the policy rate could lead to a drop of approximately 2 points in deposit rates.

Currently, deposit rates are hovering around 43 percent, but after the cut, this rate could approach 41 percent,” the source said. The official added that the decline in loan interest rates might be more limited, potentially falling to the 2.60-2.70 percent levels.

According to the deposit interest rates announced on banks' websites, the bank offering the lowest interest rate for deposits up to 100 thousand liras with a 32-day maturity is İş Bankası at 35.5 percent. İş Bankası İş followed by Vakıfbank with a 36 percent interest rate, Ziraat Bankası with 38 percent, and TEB with 38.5 percent. It is noteworthy that these banks have started applying deposit interest rates below 40 percent even for 32-day maturities. Fibabanka announces a 40 percent interest rate, Yapı Kredi 41 percent, Garanti BBVA and Akbank 43.5 percent, Halkbank 44 percent, and Denizbank 45 percent.