Looking at the election through the numbers... CHP is saved, now it's the center's turn

The winner of the election is the CHP. The losers are the AKP and its supporters, the IYI Party, and the 4 small parties of the Table of Six that "tricked" the CHP a year ago. The other winning party is the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi). I congratulate the CHP members, especially Özgür Özel, the candidates who won the election, and the administrators of different parties who supported the candidates.

This election is the beginning of a "RESISTANCE" against the lawless mentality that violates the constitution, against those who oppose the secular Republic by calling for Sharia, and against the hostile attacks made on Atatürk, the savior and founder of our country.

This election is a cry of "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH" to the monuments of arrogance who rob the people with corruption, who transfer the money and wealth of workers, retirees, farmers, small tradesmen, and low-income earners to a handful of privileged groups and cronies with high inflation, and who maintain their power with ostentation and sultanate.

This election is a milestone of "AWAKENING and RISING UP" for the Turkish Nation to protect its survival against those who pretend to be "Conservative" and "Nationalist" while attempting to play with the genes of the Turkish Nation by allowing an influx of refugees on one hand, and trying to inject Arab culture into society with so-called "Local," so-called "National," and so-called "Religious" policies on the other.

We have taken a deep breath, but we must not become complacent. The problems we summarized above were also present in the May 14 and May 28 elections held 10 months ago. Their intensity gradually increased, and the final straws that broke the camel's back came in the last 10 months. Furthermore, the alternative presented to the voter 10 months ago was an absurd and inconsistent alternative like the Table of Six. The 4 tiny parties at the Table of Six were already political Islamist and had no karşılık (support) in society. The CHP and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had started to defend neoliberal economics together with Ali Babacan, the former minister of the AKP, which had plunged Turkey into a debt trap with policies dictated by imperialism. Not enough, they had joined hands with Ahmet Davutoğlu, the former prime minister of the AKP, the architect of the policies that let 15 million refugees into Turkey.

At the time, a small group of us strongly opposed the Table of Six, but unfortunately, with a few exceptions, a rabid minority in the opposition media launched a lynching campaign against those who criticized the Table of Six. The total vote of the 4 parties at the Table of Six in the March 31 elections was 1.6 percent, and with this vote, they had snatched 38 deputies from the CHP thanks to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the previous elections. The CHP purged Kılıçdaroğlu and his team at the last congress. With this election, the political life of Kılıçdaroğlu and those who relied on him has completely ended. I hope the new management of the CHP will draw the necessary conclusions about who to form an alliance with and who not to in the coming period. The data that emerged from the election result will already be a sufficient guide on this matter. In this case, let's look at the elections through the numbers and make an assessment.

NUMBERS IN BRIEF

Comparing these elections with the 2019 local elections cannot provide enough clues. Because the political climate in the country has changed in the last 5 years, and the distribution crisis in the economy has increased its intensity, especially in the last three years. Therefore, I will draw attention to a few data points between the March 31 results and the May 14 Parliamentary elections (domestic votes).

In the March 31 elections, the number of voters increased by 720 thousand 137 people compared to 10 months ago. The number of registered voters reached 61 million 442 thousand people.

In contrast, the turnout rate dropped from 89 percent to 78 percent.

6 million 728 thousand domestic voters did not go to the polls on May 14, while 13 million 426 thousand voters did not go to the polls on March 31. According to the old turnout rates, we see that 6 million 700 thousand people who participated in the May 14 election did not go to the polls in these elections. When making a political assessment, these 6 million 700 thousand people will carry great importance. It is possible to say that the majority of these are AKP and MHP voters, and a small portion are disgruntled voters from the CHP.

AKP votes decreased by 2 million 366 thousand. It fell from 18 million 586 thousand to 16 million 220 thousand. However, its share in the total has not changed. The vote rate is 35.3 percent in both elections... (Since the total votes decreased along with the votes received, the percentage rate coincidentally remained the same)

CHP's votes increased by 3 million 953 thousand people and reached 17 million 327 thousand. Its vote rate also rose from 25.4 percent to 37.7 percent. However, attention here! The 17 million 327 thousand votes received by the CHP are still below the 18 million 586 thousand votes of the AKP in May... Let's not ignore the possibility of convincing those who did not go to the polls.

There is a decrease of 3 million 129 thousand in MHP's votes. From 10 percent to 4.7 percent... It is useful to look at the AKP and MHP together. The total votes of both have decreased by 5 million 495 thousand. (It has regressed from 23 million 869 thousand to 18 million 374 thousand.) However, although the sum of their vote rates has regressed from 46 percent to 40 percent, it is still more than the CHP's 37.7 percent alone. The total votes in the AKP and MHP base are 40-48 percent. However, the total of radical Islamists among them is at most 12-15 percent. I estimate that about 6 percent of them went to the New Welfare Party.

The conclusion I draw from this is: The voter base to be targeted and the alliance to be formed are not political Islamist parties like the AKP larvae DEVA, Future (Gelecek), and Felicity (Saadet) Party. Alternative alliance candidates are small left-wing parties and political formations that will influence the approximately 6 million 700 thousand old center-right votes that shifted to the AKP due to the crisis effect of the 2000s and did not go to the polls, and the approximately 6 million nationalist votes that are dissolving.

Another winner of the election is the New Welfare Party, which is seen to have received significant votes from the AKP base. It increased its votes by 1 million 335 thousand and raised it from 2.1 percent to 6.2 percent. The new address of the AKP's political Islamist base will most likely be the New Welfare Party.

We see that DEM votes decreased by 3 points and decreased by 2 million. It would be realistic to interpret that the DEM voter supported the CHP outside the region or did not go to the polls.

There is a decrease of 3 million 500 thousand in the IYI Party's votes. Regressing from 9.9 percent to 3.7 percent is a rout. We can interpret that a significant portion of the IYI Party votes went to the CHP. The IYI Party wanted to position itself in the center-right but failed to do so.

WHICH NATIONALISM?

The dramatic drop in votes for the MHP and IYI Party shows that it is time to discuss the strange understanding of nationalism in Turkey.

It is a fact that the vast majority of those who define themselves as nationalists in Turkey have nothing to do with the nationalism in the nation-state concept that forms the basis of Atatürk and the Republic of Turkey. They oscillate between racism, Arab admiration, Arab Nationalism, and servitude to imperialism. Atatürk's approach to nationalism has unfortunately been forgotten in the CHP as well. The decline in IYI Party and MHP votes will create a void among nationalist voters. The nationalists who fall into this void need to be well-explained about Atatürk's nationalism and the nation-state concept that forms the basis of the unitary structure of the Republic of Turkey. I will write in more detail about the nationalists in Turkey and the subject of Atatürk's nationalism in my upcoming articles.

The collapse of the AKP has begun. However, it is essential not to become complacent. It is clear that President and AKP Chairman Erdoğan will work with all the state power at his disposal to prevent this collapse and will resist not going to early elections. Due to the policies he has implemented and his political preferences, there is no hope of fixing the economy. What was done in the November 2015 elections, where he could not secure a majority, is still in memory. The intensification of terror and violence, as well as the increase in the level of authoritarianism against insurmountable economic difficulties, will be on the agenda.

There is a saying that has been repeated for years: "The country will not be saved until the CHP is saved." The old management of the CHP, which moved away from Atatürk's principles, is no longer there. The new management naturally had to focus on the March 31 elections and succeeded. We will see in the near future whether the change in management in the CHP will provide a return to Atatürk's principles. However, hopes are in the direction that "the CHP is saved."

Now it is the turn to build a formation in Turkish politics that will enable the base, which is defined as the old center-right and turned to political Islam during the crisis in the 2000s, to return to the "New Center." Of course, this "New Center" politics must realize the 20, or even 30 years that have passed, reject neoliberal economic policies, and prioritize a public-oriented, planned development understanding and a strong social state. The strengthening of a new Center Political formation that has internalized Atatürk's principles, especially Atatürk's nationalism, the unitary and nation-state, and the secular republic, and its place as a new alliance candidate alongside the CHP, will contribute to the normalization of Turkey and will be the heaviest blow to be dealt to the counter-revolution.