The new world order and Turkey…

The process of the US dismantling its rules-based order has accelerated. Most recently, it has also targeted NATO. This article aims to open a window into the discussions on what stance Turkey should take in this newly shaping world. 

Let me also make this observation, which I will explain with charts below: Iran's territory and Turkey's economy are being bombarded.

The attack by the two rogue states, the US and Israel, on Iran, the retaliations Iran has justifiably carried out, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to traffic, the disruption of oil and natural gas production, a long-term permanent rise in energy prices, and the disruption of supply chains for fertilizer, plastic raw materials, and other products are negatively affecting world economies and will continue to do so.  

An inflationary pressure is expected across the entire world, starting with the US. In Europe, the risk of stagflation has risen due to the risk of recession alongside inflation. In the Middle East, Gulf countries that thought they were under US protection are experiencing serious destruction and capital flight. Turbulence in financial markets, the postponement of interest rate cut expectations, and disruptions in supply chains will put the real sector and employment in distress. 

THE COLLAPSING WORLD ORDER 

The examples of the US dismantling the rules-based order it established itself are known to everyone; let us not repeat them. 

Add to these developments the economic miracle achieved by China; the Belt and Road Initiative, and the advantages provided to Russia and China in both energy supply and reaching European markets by the new sea route opened in the Arctic Ocean due to climate change. If we also consider that the international payment system established by China under the name CIPS, while controlling new trade routes, provides great advantages against the US SWIFT system, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the shaking of the dollar's throne has accelerated.  

The US and Israel are bombing Iran from the air, but the fact that the US Navy cannot be effective against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is interpreted as the US having already lost a potential Third World War in the near future. (We discussed extensively last week the US dollar billionaire investor Ray Dalio's statement that the dollar empire would end because the US could not achieve what it wanted against Iran, and retired Admiral Mustafa Özbey's assessments that the US Navy would be the loser of a two-week naval conflict and a potential third world war. Let us briefly recall them here and move on.) 

TURKEY'S SITUATION

US-Israeli aircraft and missiles are striking Iranian territory, but among the countries not involved in the war, Turkey is the most affected by the economic bombardment. I will include plenty of charts and tables at the end of the article so that it can be understood more clearly.

Let's look at Turkey's exports… 43 percent of our exports go to EU countries, 15 percent to other European countries that are not EU members… A total of 58 percent is to Europe…

24.4 percent of our exports are to Middle Eastern and African countries, with the latter being predominantly North African. In other words, 82 percent of our exports are to European countries that will enter a recession due to this war, and Middle Eastern countries that have been devastated by this war and are facing massive capital flight…

We say that every 10-dollar increase in oil will have an impact of around 2.5 billion dollars on our energy imports, but the impact on the foreign trade deficit due to export losses will be much greater.

Let us evaluate this not just as exports, but as imports and the foreign trade deficit. I am providing the relevant chart here.

We have a balanced trade with the EU. We have a trade surplus of 1 billion dollars. But in our trade with the Middle East and Africa, we have a surplus of 33.7 billion dollars. These data belong only to the year 2025. When we conduct a more comprehensive study, the data we have will show this even more clearly.

The US and Israel have been destabilizing the region for nearly 20 years within the scope of the Greater Middle East Project. War, blood, and tears do not cease in the region. With the conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and additionally the embargo on Iran, in reality, our trade with these countries could have developed much more, and the Turkish economy could have shrunk its foreign trade deficits and reduced its external dependency. The countries most affected by this war are the countries with which we conduct foreign trade and which have a significant weight in our tourism revenues. 

In summary, I can say this: While the US, through the Greater Middle East Project, brought Political Islam to the forefront in Turkish politics, and while it was collapsing and decaying Turkey's social structure, demographic structure through migration, and institutional structure in the state, it also dealt an additional blow to Turkey's foreign trade through the conflict environment in the region.

TURKEY'S PLACE IN THE NEW MULTIPOLAR WORLD

Daily columns can express a person's opinion. However, what is more important and weighty is the book they write. I clearly set this out in my book, "Turkey's Factory Settings for the Twenty-First Century/Counter-Revolution in the Economy," which I published in 2024. Now I repeat it.

Turkey moved away from the principles and Enlightenment Revolutions of its founder, Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, after the Second World War in 1945. It unconditionally fulfilled all of the US's suggestions to receive weapons through the Truman Doctrine and money through the Marshall Plan, following the invalidation of the Land Reform Law (1945) and the rendering of the Village Institutes dysfunctional (closed in 1954, after being made dysfunctional in 1946). It abandoned Atatürk's policies of development with its own resources. It became a member of the IMF (1946-1947-1948). It applied for NATO membership in 1950 and was accepted into NATO in February 1952.

The Turkish Armed Forces, without the knowledge of the governments and the parliament, signed 54 military agreements with NATO between 1947 and 1965.  Turkey, which had never had a foreign trade deficit until 1947, has been running a constant foreign trade deficit since 1947. In this process, it left not only NATO, the Marshall Plan, or the Truman Doctrine, but also education and the shaping of the social structure under the control of American imperialism through the Fulbright agreement. 

With the 1971-1980 coups, Turkey was detached from Atatürk's nationalism within the scope of the US's Green Belt project, and the Turkish-Islamic Synthesis became the official ideology. With the crises experienced in the 2000s, political Islam, instead of the Turkish-Islamic synthesis, exerted its weight on politics and the social structure. Turkey assumed the voluntary co-presidency of the Greater Middle East Project, which targeted itself. Almost all criteria of independence in the economy, foreign policy, defense, and the management of geopolitics were eroded. 

My personal opinion is that the greatest threat to Turkey is the US and NATO themselves.

However, on the other hand, the pole that is highly likely to form against the current unipolar US is the China-Russia alliance, led by China. However, it would be naive to expect a fair world order from this pole as well.

On the other hand, when I look at Turkey's foreign trade, Turkey's foreign trade data in this possible new world order are disastrously bad. Let's take a brief look at the table below.

We have a deficit of 46.3 billion dollars in our trade with China and 35.7 billion dollars in our trade with Russia. The deficit in trade with the US is only 1.3 billion dollars… Our total foreign trade deficit is 92 billion dollars. 82 billion dollars of it stems from China and Russia. 

In our current foreign trade structure, we cannot ignore Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. I suggest that while defense, foreign policy, and geopolitical assessments are being made, these foreign trade data should not be ignored, and the discussion of what kind of economic policies should be implemented alongside them should also be held.  

We are not tied at the hip with Europe. I am, of course, aware of their hypocritical policies. However, it is certain that as the new world order is formed, especially after the recent NATO exit, how Europe evaluates its obsession with Ukraine and its relations with the US and Russia will also be of importance to us.

Whether the Gulf countries, which believed in America's promise of a security umbrella and are experiencing great destruction, will realize the crisis of confidence they are facing today, and what stance they will take, will also be important for Turkey's room for maneuver.

ATATÜRK'S PRINCIPLES

In the conjuncture we are living in, what Turkey needs is the fundamental philosophy of Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in economy and foreign policy. 

If there is no economic development and independence, there is no military and political independence… A secular and nation-state structure based on the separation of powers and the rule of law means a structure resistant to imperialism. Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's anti-imperialist fundamental principles are a universal stance, independent of time and space. I can make a very ambitious approach, but some principles are like the laws of nature. Conditions change, but the fundamental philosophy and character do not change for thousands, or even tens of thousands of years, looking at human history. 

“Peace at home, peace in the world”

“Freedom and independence are my character.”

“The truest guide in life is science.”

CHARTS AND TABLES FOR THE CURIOUS