Will REEs bring wealth, or blood and tears?

Rapid changes in technology are bringing with them new sources of wealth and new areas of conflict in global competition and global power struggles.

I would like to share an observation made by one of our retired admirals, Mustafa Özbey, during a conversation: “In the global power competition, which was based on the goal of safe and uninterrupted access to oil in the 1970s, the focus of the power struggle will now be rare earth elements (REEs). In this great competition, while Turkey has the opportunity to become a historic player, it must never make a decision that prioritizes personal survival and fortune while excluding national interests.”

Following this observation, I also shared some of my pessimistic views.

“A very great historic opportunity... Will it bring prosperity, or blood and tears? Looking at the current government's mining practices, I cannot be hopeful. In fact, quite the opposite. I have been writing about this since May. The global capitalist system has changed the role it assigned to an increasingly authoritarian Turkey. Turkey is no longer in a position to be a country to cooperate with. The status of a developing country, which previously could not complete its industrialization, opened its market to global capitalism, and was exploited through foreign trade deficits and foreign debt interest, has now turned into a semi-colonial or colonial economy, much like in the final period of the Ottoman Empire. After the country's resources, which were transferred abroad through high interest rates, it is now the turn of the looting of mines and rare earth elements.”

Economic historians will explain this more clearly in the future. Let me briefly recall some developments that have led me to the conviction that we are rapidly transitioning to the status of a colonial country.

- The agreement made in Houston on March 14, 2025, between US President Donald Trump's friend, oilman and miner Harold Hamm, and officials from our Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, the content of which has not been disclosed…

- Immediately after this agreement, the detention and arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 19, following a phone call between Erdoğan and Trump…

- The response given by Harold Hamm, who should care about the principles of the rule of law as a foreign capital investor, to a question from a US Fox TV reporter on March 25 regarding İmamoğlu's arrest: “These things happen in countries that are not democratic or where democracy exists to some degree but is not sufficient. You know, you throw your opponents in jail and take care of them. I'm not worried.”

- The latest mining law passed by the Parliament... The US Ambassador Tom Barrack speaking with the tone of a colonial governor targeting Lausanne and Turkey's form of government... The same ambassador's claims that the legitimacy of the Presidency is granted by the White House instead of fair elections and the constitution…

These headlines, which I have briefly summarized, are indicators that we are rapidly turning into a semi-colonial or colonial country in terms of economy, law, foreign policy, and defense.

A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY

Yet, a historic opportunity has now emerged before Turkey. Rare earth elements offer Turkey an opportunity for a near future where it is independent, strong, and its people live in prosperity. But unfortunately, looking at the AKP's mining policies, I fall into despair.

There is a party whose program states that all mining licenses granted will be reviewed and canceled, that mining will be nationalized as it was during the Atatürk era, that exploration activities will be carried out by the MTA (General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration) and processing activities by Etibank, and that partnerships with the private sector will be established in necessary cases provided that the majority share remains with the state. The Doğru Party... I haven't read their programs, but I know from the media that officials from the Left Party (Sol Parti) and the TKP (Communist Party of Turkey) have also expressed similar views.

I received a letter from Cezmi Orkun, Deputy Chairman of the Doğru Party responsible for Energy and Natural Resources. He calls on the public to be careful and vigilant regarding rare earth elements. I am summarizing and sharing the letter.

“President and AKP Chairman Erdoğan met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan in July 2024. A decision was made to cooperate on the development of metals used in a series of high-tech applications. The 'Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Fields of Natural Resources and Mining' between China and Turkey was signed by Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar and Chinese Minister Wang Guanghua on 16.10.2024. Whether there is technology transfer in the agreement made with China and what it covers is unknown to the public...

The Chinese publication Global Times reported that Turkey has the second-largest reserve in the world with 694 million tons, following China's 800 million tons of REE reserves. Refined REEs are an important component of high-tech devices... They are used in hundreds of products, especially new-generation energy sources, mobile phones, hard drives, monitors, lasers, radar and sonar systems, from fiber optics to satellite communications, and from smart missiles to fuel cells, including electric cars.

There are 694 million tons of REEs and around 350 thousand tons of thorium in the Beylikova/Sivrihisar region of Eskişehir, and 300 thousand tons of REEs and 17 thousand tons of thorium in the Burdur-Çanaklı region. Thorium is used especially in new types of nuclear power plants that do not harm the environment.

When you sell REEs as raw material, if you earn 1 unit, you earn 10 times more when you process it into an intermediate product, and 100 times more when you turn it into a finished product, or even 1000 times more for some finished products. To emphasize the importance of REEs... While an F-35 fighter jet contains 410 kilograms of REEs, a Virginia-class submarine uses approximately 4.1 tons of REEs.

The fact that the US and Europe meet almost all of their REE needs from China creates both geopolitical tensions and hinders the ability of the US and Europe to produce the technologies necessary to transition to new-generation energy sources.

China's imposition of limits on REE exports to the US will further increase this tension. Following all these developments, Trump has set his sights on Turkey regarding boron, thorium, and REEs. It is understood from Erdoğan's meeting with Trump in the US that these strategically important boron, thorium, and REEs, which are the guarantee of our future, will be transferred to the US at a cheap price as raw materials without being processed.

The cooperation agreement made with China should not be abandoned... Boron, thorium, and REEs, which are the guarantee of our future, cannot be sacrificed for personal fortune. Mines and REEs must definitely be extracted, processed, and turned into finished products by the state before being sold.”