The threat in Yemen is crossing borders

While the Arab Spring brought to light demands for social and political change in many Arab countries, it also deepened the existing political crisis in Yemen, triggering a process of power and political transformation. However, even before the Arab Spring, Yemen was a country facing political instability, social divisions, and armed conflict. Developments after 2011 made these problems more complex, turning Yemen into a long-term conflict zone where regional powers are directly involved.

A divided past

For many years, Yemen existed as two separate political entities: North and South Yemen. While North Yemen became independent in 1918 following the withdrawal of the Ottoman Empire from the region, South Yemen, which came under British control in 1839 due to its strategic location, gained its independence in 1967. Although the two Yemens united in 1990, political instability and social divisions did not end.

This complex structure paved the way for the emergence of various armed and political actors. The rise of the Houthis, who belong to the Zaydi branch of Shiism and make up approximately 35% of the population, especially since the mid-2000s, changed the balance in Yemen. It is assessed that the policies of the Yemeni administration, particularly toward Zaydi communities in the north, and long-term political exclusion were influential in the rise of the Houthis.

Over time, due to the isolation policy applied to them by the Yemeni government, the Houthis were forced to seek support from Iran, which is closest to their beliefs. While it is known that Iran provides political, military, and technical support to the Houthis, evaluating the Houthis solely as a proxy force for Iran means ignoring the internal political and social dynamics of Yemen. Despite their close relations with Iran, the Houthis act as an actor with their own decision-making capacity.

Yemen's strategic location and the fact that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean have made the country one of the most important areas of competition. For this reason, while conflicts in Yemen affect the security of trade and energy routes, the strengthening of the Houthis has posed a threat to Saudi Arabia in terms of border security and its interests in the Red Sea, and has been an element that increases Iran's regional influence. Therefore, it is not sufficient to explain the conflict in Yemen solely through sectarian differences or the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. The country's historical division, political exclusion, local power struggles, and strategic geographical location have combined to turn Yemen into a multi-layered regional conflict zone.

The conflict gained a regional dimension with the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015. One of the main justifications for the intervention was the strengthening of the Houthis and their attainment of military capacity extending to the Saudi Arabian border.

Is tension escalating again?

The fact that the tension between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has recently returned to the agenda shows that the conflict in Yemen has not completely ended. For Saudi Arabia, the main issue is to prevent attacks originating from Yemen from turning into a threat to its own territory and economic infrastructure. For the Houthis, military capacity continues to be one of the main tools for maintaining their political position and bargaining power in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia's search for regional support

Yemenis make up 5-6% of the Saudi Arabian population. This population demonstrates an important dimension of the historical, social, and economic ties between the two countries. The impact of developments in Yemen on Saudi Arabia is not limited to these social ties; it also directly concerns its internal stability and interests. For this reason, Riyadh attaches importance not only to its own capacity but also to its partnerships against threats originating from Yemen.

In this context, beyond the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, the potential support of Egypt is important. The fact that Egypt is directly affected by developments in Yemen due to energy security in the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Bab-el-Mandeb line makes Cairo an important partner for Saudi Arabia.

Another indicator of Riyadh's search for regional partnerships is the statement of support from Morocco. Morocco has also issued a statement supporting the security and stability of Saudi Arabia. However, it would be premature to draw the conclusion of direct military intervention from this statement for now.

The rapprochement between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab

Another development that could add a new dimension to the current balances in Yemen is the allegations of a rapprochement between the Zaydi Shiite Houthis and the Somalia-based Sunni Al-Shabaab. The meeting of two movements that are different from each other in sectarian terms on a common ground seems remarkable at first glance. However, the relations of armed organizations in the region are not explained solely through sects. Pragmatic elements such as security, weapons and logistics, the perception of a common enemy, and interests can also lead to temporary or limited cooperation between different groups.

If a more systematic relationship emerges between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, its impact may not be limited to Yemen. A new risk area could emerge in terms of maritime security in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Horn of Africa. However, at this stage, more information is needed to make a definitive assessment of the scope and nature of this rapprochement.

Saudi Arabia's security concern

In the relations between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, Yemen's historical claims on Saudi territory are also brought to the agenda from time to time. However, the borders between the two countries were largely determined by the 1934 Treaty of Taif and the 2000 Treaty of Jeddah, and the border issue was placed within a legal framework.

Despite this, Saudi Arabia's sensitivity regarding developments, especially in the eastern regions, continues. The Eastern Province is not only a critical region for the country's oil production and energy infrastructure, but there is also a significant Shiite population here. For this reason, the combination of the Houthi threat with the social and sectarian dynamics in the eastern regions of Saudi Arabia creates potentially significant concern for Riyadh.

It can be said that the main concern here is not a direct territorial demand, but rather the transformation of the crisis in Yemen into a development that could affect Saudi Arabia's internal balances. In this respect, it remains uncertain whether developments in the region will combine with social mobility in the areas where the Shiite population in Saudi Arabia is located. Such a situation could increase the impact of the crisis in question on social balances within the country. Similarly, the possibility of social mobility in other countries in the region where there is a Shiite population also increases Saudi Arabia's concerns.

The fact that the Yemeni threat is carried across the border in this way leads to the evaluation of the issue in terms of Saudi Arabia's internal security and governance balances. Some Saudi sources claim that the Yemen war and the Kingdom's increasing debt burden have escalated disputes within the royal family, which negatively affects Vision 2030, which aims to reduce oil dependence and diversify the economy. According to the sources, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman believes that his brother, Khalid bin Salman, whom he appointed to the Ministry of Defense to defeat the Houthis and protect the Kingdom, is not acting decisively enough to resolve the conflict. It is also alleged that this situation increases the fear of a rebellion against the Crown Prince's rule or that disputes will turn into internal conflict.

Although it is difficult to verify these claims, the Houthi threat is turning into a multi-dimensional issue that extends from social and sectarian balances in the east of the country to energy security, from defense policy to economic goals, and to balances within the royal family.

Conclusion

The conflict in Yemen is no longer just a power struggle within the country; it has turned into a broader security equation extending from the Red Sea to the Gulf.

The military capacity of the Houthis and the relationships they can establish with different actors carry Saudi Arabia's concerns beyond the border line, while also strengthening its search for support.