Alarming dollar forecast from the IMF: The dollar could exceed 99 TL

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) included striking data regarding the Turkish economy in its published World Economic Outlook report. The report contains forecasts for the dollar exchange rate, inflation, and growth.

TURKEY'S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT WILL RISE RAPIDLY

According to the IMF's database, Turkey's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise rapidly in the coming years.

• GDP, which was 26.3 trillion TL in 2023, is expected to rise to:
• 41.5 trillion TL in 2024,
• 58.2 trillion TL in 2025,
• 72.7 trillion TL in 2026,
• 88 trillion TL in 2027,
• 106.2 trillion TL in 2028,
• 127.9 trillion TL in 2029.

A FORECAST OF 99.44 FOR THE DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE!

Furthermore, according to the IMF's dollar exchange rate forecasts, the average dollar/TL rate is expected to rise to:

• 37.24 in 2024,
• 52.57 in 2025,
• 62.97 in 2026,
• 73.54 in 2027,
• 85.48 in 2028,
• 99.44 in 2029.

According to the forecasts announced by the AKP government in the Medium-Term Program (OVP);

• 23.88 for 2023,
• 36.78 for 2024,
• 43.94 for 2025,
• 47.80 for 2026,
• 19.8 percent was projected for 2026.

IMF AND CBRT INFLATION FORECASTS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT

While Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek pointed to 2026 for single-digit inflation, the IMF's report estimated inflation at 19.56 percent in 2026.

The IMF's year-end inflation forecasts for Turkey are at quite high levels:

• 45.02 percent for 2024,
• 28.28 percent for 2025,
• 19.56 percent for 2026.

These forecasts are above the Central Bank's (CBRT) estimates. The CBRT's inflation forecasts were set as:

• 36 percent for 2024,
• 14 percent for 2025,
• 9 percent for 2026.

The inflation forecasts announced by the government in the OVP are below the IMF's expectations:

• 33 percent for 2024,
• 15.2 percent for 2025,
• 8.5 percent for 2026.

IMF AND GOVERNMENT GROWTH FORECASTS

There are also differences between the IMF and the government's forecasts regarding growth. The IMF's economic growth forecasts for Turkey are:

• 3.1 percent for 2024,
• 3.2 percent for 2025,
• 3.3 percent for 2026,
• 3.5 percent for 2027, 2028, and 2029.

However, the growth forecasts announced by the government in the OVP are more optimistic:

• 4 percent for 2024,
• 4.5 percent for 2025,
• 5 percent for 2026.

News Source: 12punto