How did global markets start the day?

According to data released in the US yesterday, the JOLTS job openings increased by 8 thousand in February compared to the previous month, rising to 8 million 756 thousand, while factory orders also showed a 1.4 percent increase in the same period, exceeding market expectations.

Analysts stated that these data points indicate vitality in US economic activity, noting that this situation fuels expectations that the Fed will not be hasty regarding interest rate cuts.

Analysts, who noted that clues regarding the bank's future steps will be sought from the statements Powell will make today, said that data to be released in the US, especially the ADP private sector employment figures, could increase volatility in the markets.

On the other hand, while Fed officials continue their verbal guidance, cautious messages in their statements are proving effective in reducing risk appetite. Yesterday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester stated that they still expect the bank to cut interest rates three times in 2024, but that they are in no rush to begin lowering borrowing costs.

Mester emphasized that she would not prejudge the monetary policy meeting but also did not take the possibility of a rate cut in June off the table.

While the dollar index is at the 104.7 level with a 0.1 percent decrease, a sell-heavy trend was observed in bond markets following these developments. The US 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 4.4 percent during the day yesterday, testing its highest level since November, before closing the day above 4.35 percent. It is currently at 4.36 percent.

The ounce price of gold, despite a strong dollar and rising bond yields, extended its upward trend for the 7th consecutive trading day, hitting a record high of 2 thousand 288.5 dollars today. Analysts noted that expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks globally this year are supporting the ounce price of gold, and that the appetite for gold remains strong despite possible delays in the dates of these rate cuts.   

The barrel price of Brent crude, which extended its upward trend for the 4th consecutive trading day yesterday, exceeded 89 dollars, testing its highest level since October, and continues to fuel inflation concerns. The barrel price of Brent crude is currently trading at 88.7 dollars, 0.3 percent below its previous close.

Along with the rise in oil prices, shares of energy companies such as Phillips 66, ExxonMobil, Pioneer Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental also gained between 1.5 and 4 percent in value.

The price of Bitcoin fell below 65 thousand dollars yesterday as uncertainties regarding the Fed's future steps persist. With the decline in Bitcoin's price, the loss of value in crypto-related stocks also drew attention. Coinbase's share price fell by 2.5 percent. Bitcoin is currently finding buyers at 66 thousand 320 dollars, 1 percent above its previous close.

On the other hand, news flow regarding Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world's largest chip manufacturer, evacuating employees and halting production at some of its factories near the coast following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan today is also at the center of the agenda.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq index lost 0.95 percent and the S&P 500 index lost 0.72 percent on the New York Stock Exchange, while the Dow Jones index followed a flat course. Index futures in the US also started the new day with a negative trend.

While a negative trend dominated European stock markets yesterday, eyes today are turned to the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the Eurozone.

Analysts stated that these preliminary inflation data could increase volatility in the markets and could also be effective on the pricing formed in money markets regarding the steps the European Central Bank (ECB) will take.

On the other hand, according to the Consumer Expectations Survey released by the ECB yesterday, short-term inflation expectations of consumers in the Eurozone have fallen to their lowest level in the last two years. Accordingly, the average inflation expectation of consumers in the Eurozone for the next 12 months fell from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent.

According to preliminary inflation data released in Germany yesterday, annual CPI fell to 2.2 percent in March, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK recorded a decrease of 0.22 percent, the MIB 30 index in Italy 1.22 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany 1.13 percent, and the CAC 40 index in France 0.92 percent. Index futures in Europe also started the new day with a negative trend.

While a selling trend dominated Asian equity markets, news flow regarding TSMC pausing chip production at some of its factories following the earthquake disaster in Taiwan appears to be putting pressure on companies operating particularly in the automotive, technology, and artificial intelligence sectors.

According to data released in the region today, the Caixin services sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose to 52.7 in March, recording expansion for the 15th consecutive month. In Japan, the services sector PMI remained below expectations at 54.1 in March.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 0.7 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea 1.4 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong 1 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China 0.2 percent.

In Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling trend domestically yesterday, the BIST 100 index closed the day with a 1.27 percent loss at 9,040.87 points, while eyes today are turned to inflation data.

Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectation Survey estimate that the CPI will increase by 3.67 percent in March.

The Dollar/TL, after following a selling trend yesterday and closing the day 0.6 percent below its previous close at 32.0525, is trading at 32.0480 at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that inflation data in the country and the Eurozone, as well as ADP private sector employment and services sector PMI data in the US, will be monitored today, noting that technically, the 9,000 and 8,900 levels are support, and 9,100 and 9,200 points are resistance for the BIST 100 index.

News Source: 12punto