The raise that millions of retirees and civil servants will receive in January 2027 will be clarified by the inflation that occurs in the second half of the year. The inflation forecast in the 2027 Presidential Annual Program and the Medium-Term Program, along with the Central Bank's year-end expectations, highlight two separate scenarios for salary increases.
Inflation for the first 6 months of 2026 was finalized at 17.76 percent. In July, the lowest retiree pension was increased to 23,552 TL, the lowest civil servant salary to 70,224 TL, and the lowest civil servant pension to 31,527 TL. The inflation for the second 6-month period will be the determining factor in the new increase to be made in January.
TWO INFLATION SCENARIOS
The 2026 year-end inflation forecast was included as 28.4 percent in the 2027 Presidential Annual Program and the MTP. If this rate is realized, the inflation for the second 6 months corresponds to 9.04 percent. The pensions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will increase directly by this rate.
For civil servants and civil servant retirees, the calculation is made using the collective bargaining agreement raise and the inflation difference. According to the 28.4 percent year-end forecast, since the 7 percent raise received in July is exceeded, an inflation difference of 1.91 percent emerges. Together with the 5 percent collective bargaining increase projected for January 2027, the total raise rate rises to the 7 percent level.
When the 28 percent year-end forecast in the Central Bank's 3rd Inflation Report is taken as a basis, the picture changes slightly. In this scenario, the inflation for the second 6 months is calculated as 8.70 percent, and the SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree raise is calculated at the same rate. The cumulative increase for civil servants and civil servant retirees remains at the 6.67 percent level.
| Salary type | Current amount (July 2026) | MTP/Annual Program scenario | Central Bank scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest civil servant salary | 70,224 TL | 75,139 TL (7.00% raise) | 74,908 TL (6.67% raise) |
| Lowest civil servant pension | 31,527 TL | 33,733 TL (7.00% raise) | 33,630 TL (6.67% raise) |
| Lowest retiree pension | 23,552 TL | 25,681 TL (9.04% raise) | 25,601 TL (8.70% raise) |
The exact raise rates will be clarified after the inflation data for the second half of 2026 is announced. For this reason, the amounts in the table are considered as possible salary calculations made based on official targets and forecasts.
New targets for the macroeconomic outlook were also shared in the 2027 Annual Program. Accordingly, it is projected that the Turkish economy will close 2026 with 3.3 percent growth and grow by 4.2 percent in 2027. The 2027 target for inflation is stated as 21 percent in the MTP and 15 percent in the Central Bank report.
News Source: 12punto
