Major bank announces forecast: Dollar to cross critical threshold

ING expects the dollar/TL exchange rate to be at 39.67 in the first half of 2025 and at 43.00 by the end of the year. This forecast reflects a minor revision to previous projections, which were set at 39.44 and 43.00, respectively.

TURKEY'S ECONOMIC POLICIES

Turkey's macroeconomic policies are at their tightest level since the beginning of the current program. While reserve accumulation has gradually resumed, core inflation showed a significant improvement in May. It was observed that the lasting impact of the fluctuations experienced in March was limited.

CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION EXPECTATIONS

ING does not expect any change in the policy rate at the Central Bank meeting to be held on June 19. The decision to be taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) is being closely monitored by economists and investors.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND RISKS OF WEAKNESS

ING projects that growth, which was 3.2 percent in 2024, will decline to 2.8 percent in 2025. It warns that the risks of economic weakness should not be ignored. This situation requires economic indicators to be monitored carefully.

Optimistic about Turkey's dollar bonds, ING states that this optimism stems from positive developments in the economy. These developments continue to create an attractive environment for investors.

News Source: 12punto