New forecast for civil servant and retiree raises: Calculations have changed from scratch!

The inflation forecast included in the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) September 2026 report on Turkey has brought calculations regarding the increases to be made in January for civil servant and retiree salaries back to the forefront. The bank announced its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey as 2.8 percent and its year-end inflation forecast as 31.5 percent.

The fundamental determining data for civil servant and retiree raises will be the inflation that occurs in the second half of the year. SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive a raise equal to the CPI increase in the second half of 2026. For civil servants and civil servant retirees, an inflation difference will be added to the 7 percent increase stemming from the collective bargaining agreement, provided that the conditions are met.

TWO-MONTH INFLATION WAS 3.65 PERCENT

In the second half of 2026, inflation for July and August has been announced so far. CPI increased by 1.78 percent in July and 1.84 percent in August. Thus, the two-month cumulative inflation was calculated as 3.65 percent.

This rate means that a 3.65 percent increase has already been formed for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. On the civil servant side, the threshold for the inflation difference has not yet been exceeded. According to the calculation, for a difference to occur for civil servants, additional inflation of over 3.23 percent must occur in the remaining four months.

POTENTIAL RAISE RATES ACCORDING TO ADB FORECAST

If the ADB's 31.5 percent year-end inflation forecast is realized, it is calculated that inflation in the second half of 2026 will reach 11.67 percent. In this scenario, the six-month inflation difference for civil servants will be 4.36 percent.

According to this table, the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees stands out as 11.67 percent. For civil servants and civil servant retirees, the increase rate is calculated at the 9.58 percent level with the combined effect of the collective bargaining raise and the inflation difference.

If these rates are reflected in salaries, it is calculated that the lowest retiree pension will increase from 23 thousand 552 liras to approximately 26 thousand 300 liras. The lowest civil servant salary is expected to rise from 70 thousand 224 liras to 76 thousand 951 liras.

For the exact raise rates, the announcement of inflation data for September, October, November, and December will be awaited. Therefore, the current calculations are in the nature of a potential scenario based on the year-end forecast.

News Source: 12punto