NEW Party poll shakes things up: Gap exceeds 11 points

The results of a general election poll by Gündemar Research have been announced at a time when discussions about new parties are ongoing on Turkey's political agenda. In the research conducted between July 28-31, the NEW Party, founded under the leadership of Özgür Özel, ranked first with 38.58 percent of the vote.

In the research, where the AK Party is in second place with 27.43 percent, the gap between the NEW Party and the AK Party was calculated as 11.15 points. The CHP, led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was appointed as the CHP Chairman by a court decision, remained at 2.94 percent.

A total of 2,300 people from 60 provinces participated in the research, and the margin of error for the study was announced as 2.04 percent.

RESULTS BEFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS

In the results shared by Gündemar Research, the vote shares of the parties before the distribution of undecided and protest votes were measured as follows:

NEW Party: 31.66 percent

AK Party: 22.50 percent

Undecided/No opinion: 10.67 percent

Protest vote: 7.30 percent

DEM Party: 6.21 percent

Victory Party (Zafer Partisi): 4.50 percent

MHP: 4.25 percent

İYİ Party: 3.74 percent

New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi): 2.54 percent

CHP: 2.41 percent

Key Party (Anahtar Parti): 1.81 percent

Workers' Party of Turkey (Türkiye İşçi Partisi): 0.51 percent

Other: 1.90 percent

After the distribution of undecided and protest votes, the NEW Party's vote share rose to 38.58 percent.

NEW PARTY IN FIRST PLACE WITH 38.58 PERCENT

After the distribution, the vote shares of the parties in the poll were as follows:

NEW Party: 38.58 percent

AK Party: 27.43 percent

DEM Party: 7.57 percent

Victory Party (Zafer Partisi): 5.49 percent

MHP: 5.18 percent

İYİ Party: 4.56 percent

New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi): 3.10 percent

CHP: 2.94 percent

Key Party (Anahtar Parti): 2.21 percent

Workers' Party of Turkey (Türkiye İşçi Partisi): 0.62 percent

Other: 2.32 percent

According to these results, the vote gap between the NEW Party and the AK Party was measured at 11.15 points.

RESEARCH BEGAN FOUR DAYS AFTER THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE NEW PARTY

Gündemar Research drew particular attention to the fact that the study was conducted immediately after the establishment of the NEW Party.

According to the company's statement, the research was carried out between July 28-31. The NEW Party was founded on July 24. Thus, the research began just four days after the party's establishment.

Gündemar stated that the results reveal the initial voter response during the NEW Party's establishment period, expressing that the study serves as a measurement indicating the new party's starting level.

It was also emphasized that the research was conducted before the framework law vote held in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) on August 10.

In the statement, it was noted that for this reason, the 38.58 percent rate in the poll should not be evaluated as voter support formed after the aforementioned parliamentary vote.

VOTER TRANSITION TO THE NEW PARTY FROM DIFFERENT PARTIES

In Gündemar Research's analysis, it was stated that voter transitions from different political parties to the NEW Party were also measured.

According to the research, 79.26 percent of voters who stated that they voted for the CHP in the 2023 elections said they prefer the NEW Party today.

The orientation rates toward the NEW Party among 2023 voters of other parties were measured as follows:

TİP voters: 71.57 percent

İYİ Party voters: 34.16 percent

MHP voters: 16.52 percent

AK Party voters: 10.30 percent

Gündemar stated that these data indicate that the NEW Party was able to receive support from voters with different political tendencies during its establishment period.

In the company's statement, it was also pointed out that the sample sizes of the subgroups differ from each other, and it was expressed that voter transition rates should not be evaluated with the same level of precision as general vote shares.

TAMER BOLAT: “A STRONG STARTING SUPPORT”

Gündemar Research Chairman of the Board Prof. Dr. Tamer Bolat also made an assessment regarding the poll results.

Bolat said that the research shows that the NEW Party received strong starting support from different political voter groups immediately after its establishment.

Drawing attention to the fact that 79.26 percent of voters who voted for the CHP in the 2023 elections turned to the NEW Party, Bolat expressed that this situation shows that the political and organizational split experienced was reflected in voter preferences in a short time.

Bolat emphasized that the 38.58 percent rate reflects the political landscape before the parliamentary vote on August 10, and therefore, this rate should not be interpreted as support after the vote.

“THE IMPACT OF THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT RESEARCH”

Pointing out that interest in newly established parties can show high volatility in the first period, Bolat stated that the impact of the stance taken in the parliamentary vote on voter confidence and voting preferences could be seen in the next research.

While Gündemar Research's July study was one of the first measurements made immediately after the establishment of the NEW Party, it was seen in the research that the party ranked first with 38.58 percent. The AK Party was measured in second place with 27.43 percent, and the DEM Party in third place with 7.57 percent.

News Source: 12punto