The crisis between Azerbaijan and Russia shakes the balance in the South Caucasus

The tension between Azerbaijan and Russia in recent days indicates that the balance of power in the Caucasus has entered a new era. For the first time since Tsarist Russia, the Kremlin is facing a diplomatic crisis with both Armenia and Azerbaijan at the same time. According to experts, this situation signals that Moscow's influence in the region is under serious risk.

At the forefront of the recent developments that have pitted Baku against Moscow is the detention of approximately 50 Azerbaijani citizens, most of whom are Russian nationals, by Russian security forces in Yekaterinburg, during which two people lost their lives. While Azerbaijani officials allege that those in custody were tortured, Russia accuses the individuals of membership in an organized crime group and links them to a past murder.

Last December, relations between the two countries were also shaken following an incident where an Azerbaijani plane was shot down near the Russia-Georgia border, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. Following these events, Azerbaijan halted Russian cultural activities and raided the Sputnik office in Baku, detaining two Russian citizens on charges of "espionage." Additionally, it was announced that various Russian citizens were caught on charges of attempting to smuggle drugs from Iran.

THE DRIFT AWAY FROM RUSSIA IS BECOMING SERIOUS

Azerbaijan's recent reactions and the increase in anti-Russian rhetoric in state media show that Baku's distance from Moscow is steadily growing. Experts state that Russia's loss of military and political focus due to the war in Ukraine has led to a loss of power in the region. As in Syria and Karabakh, countries in the Caucasus are benefiting from the decline of Russian influence.

In this context, Azerbaijan's intervention in separatist Armenian regions at the end of 2023, challenging the status quo under Russian control in Karabakh, is seen as a major turning point. Furthermore, the series of high-level visits by Western diplomats to both the South Caucasus and Central Asia over the past year has caused Western influence to be felt increasingly. Therefore, the Azerbaijan-Russia tension is also evaluated as a reflection of Western maneuvers in the region.

PAUSE IN US ARMS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE

In addition to these developments, Washington's decision to halt the provision of critical military support to Ukraine has become another major item on the agenda. It has been alleged that the US Department of Defense has suspended shipments of certain munitions to Ukraine in recent days, citing "depleted stocks." While it is claimed that Patriot air defense missiles are also included in this scope, the Ukrainian government summoned the US representative in Kyiv to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warning that any interruption in shipments would embolden Russia.

Kremlin spokespersons stated, "A reduction in arms shipments to Ukraine will bring the conflict to a swift end." US President Donald Trump had raised the "possibility of providing additional Patriots to Ukraine" at the NATO Summit in the Netherlands last week. Temporary disruptions in US military aid have occurred previously.

FIRST CONTACT BETWEEN FRANCE AND RUSSIA

Another significant diplomatic development was French President Emmanuel Macron holding a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in three years. The Kremlin's statement noted that the call took place at the request of the French side, and that the leaders discussed numerous topics for over two hours, particularly the war in Ukraine, as well as Iran and the Middle East. The statement emphasized that Putin pointed out that "the conflict in Ukraine is a result of the policies of Western countries over many years."

News Source: 12punto