They are mocking our intelligence!

The government has announced a new "Medium-Term Program."

The numbers have changed.

The calendar has changed.

The targets have been rewritten.

Supposedly, inflation will be 28.4 percent by the end of 2026.

It will drop to 21 percent in 2027.

Then, 13.5 percent in 2028, and 9 percent in 2029.

Growth is targeted at 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028, and 5 percent in 2029!

They are projecting that the ratio of the budget deficit to national income will be reduced to 2.8 percent by the end of the program period, and so on...

Nice, if you believe it...

Let us state the truth; they are clearly mocking our intelligence.

In Turkey, the high cost of living has long since ceased to be a matter of statistics; it has descended like a nightmare upon people's tables, pockets, homes, minds—in short, their entire lives.

Could those who announce these figures not see that millions of people are giving up their most basic needs just to make it to the end of the month, counting every penny spent on meat, milk, cheese, and eggs?

Are they not aware that going to the market has become a luxury, educating a child a heavy cost, and paying rent a struggle in itself!

People have long since stopped planning for a better life; going on vacation with the family for a week a year, eating out once a month, or things like that—no, it's not like that; they are desperately thinking about how to survive the rest of the month with the money they have.

In this country, where millions of people have incomes at the hunger threshold, the phrase "inflation is falling" has nothing to do with the reality experienced by the citizens.

People are not interested at all in a few percentage points of change in the inflation rate. They measure the economy by the products in their shopping cart, the rent they can pay, and the food they can put in their child's lunchbox.

Otherwise, the rest is just empty talk...

So, let us ask a question:

Does the government really want to lower inflation?

There is little point in discussing the MTP without asking this question. Because fighting inflation is not a task that can be carried out solely through the Central Bank's interest rates.

How much the state spends is important, as is where it spends it, which expenditures it gives up, whose burden it lightens, and whose shoulders it places a burden upon...

Even a first-year student reading economics at university knows this.

The people of my country have been listening to the same story for years.

Inflation will be fought, savings will be made, discipline will be ensured in the public sector, the budget balance will be corrected...

Then we turn and look at public expenditures.

Another question inevitably comes to mind:

Is lowering inflation truly an economic necessity for the government, or is it a political discourse that is rebuilt and then broken during every MTP period?

We know very well that the bill is very heavy. Because inflation is a type of tax. Moreover, it is one of the most ruthless types of taxes.

But it does not come to you via tax law. It is not voted on in Parliament. It is not notified. No notice is sent from the tax office.

However, it pulls money right out of your pocket. And much faster than your income increases...

It takes from the worker whose salary melts away at the end of the month, it takes from the pensioner's fixed income.

It takes from the small saver who keeps their savings in the bank, it takes from the middle class trying to save money for their future.

Then this resource is transferred to other segments of the economy, reducing the real burden of debt for those who are in debt.

It can increase the nominal value of real estate, companies, stocks, foreign currency, and gold held by those who own assets.

This is the class character of inflation.

Let us write it once again, underlining it with a thick pen; inflation is one of the most ruthless tools of wealth transfer.

So, if inflation falls, will the high cost of living disappear?

There is a major conceptual confusion here as well. Inflation falling from 28.4 percent to 21 percent does not mean that prices will fall. Prices will continue to rise. They will just rise more slowly.

The high inflation that Turkey has been experiencing for several years has already moved the price level to a completely different place.

Rent is somewhere else.

Food is somewhere else.

Housing is somewhere else.

Transportation is somewhere else.

Education is somewhere else.

No one has any sense of price anymore; the people of my country can no longer tell what is expensive and what is cheap.

The government is now trying to save the day by saying, "We are lowering inflation." Because the truth can no longer be hidden.

Since this is the case, let us ask:

"When will my life become cheaper?"

The answer is clear:

Prices do not become cheaper while inflation is falling.

The rate of increase slows down. Therefore, reaching the 9 percent inflation target in 2029 is certainly important. But the real issue is compensating for the purchasing power that the citizen has lost.

Does the government have such a will, or does it want this order to continue for decades by condemning the people of my country to manageable poverty?

Let us make the correct diagnosis.

The main problem is in public expenditures.

Let's say the government really wants to fight inflation; it must first look at its own appetite for spending. Because if the Central Bank tries to cool down the economy on one side while the public sector opens the spending taps wide on the other, a consistent disinflation policy will not emerge.

It is that clear and simple!

In other words, the issue is also clear in terms of economic science:

If fiscal policy hits the gas while monetary policy hits the brake, the vehicle will not slow down in a healthy way.

Turkey's problem is exactly here. On one hand, patience is suggested to the citizens. On the other hand, it is explained that wages must be suppressed for the sake of fighting inflation. On one hand, "resource" calculations are made for pensioners, employees, and tradespeople.

And then, God help the public spending...

For example, the NATO Summit held in Ankara in July... The expenditure reached 11 billion 579 million 319 thousand liras!

Airport arrangements.

Roads.

Infrastructure.

Landscaping.

Security.

Hospitality.

Construction of protocol routes, etc...

It could be argued that some of these expenditures are of a permanent infrastructure nature and will provide long-term use. Indeed, it was stated in official announcements that more than 56 thousand security personnel were assigned for the summit.

What we are discussing here is not whether the NATO Summit should have been held. The state, of course, hosts international meetings.

It provides security.

It hosts its guests.

It fulfills its diplomatic responsibility.

But we also have the right to ask how resources are used in a country experiencing an economic crisis.

Because when they come before the citizens and say "there are no resources," the citizens have the right to turn around and ask, "Then where did 11.5 billion liras come from?"

This is exactly the issue. When it comes to the worker, resources are limited. When it comes to the pensioner, the budget balance is sensitive. When it comes to the minimum wage earner, it is the fight against inflation. But billions of liras can be found instantly for some public expenditures.

So, the issue is not just a matter of resources. It is a matter of preference...

Fighting inflation is not just about making citizens stop spending. It is also about the state disciplining its own expenditures.

Returning to the MTP, the numbers are there, the targets are there. But there is another question as important as how these targets will be reached:

Why should we believe it this time?

For example, while the MTP's 2026 inflation forecast is raised to 28.4 percent, let us remember that the 2026 target in the previous program was 16 percent!

There is not just a statistical difference here; this is a predictability problem of the economic management. If you say 16 percent today and 28.4 percent tomorrow, how can you expect the citizen to trust the new target!

The new program predicts 5 percent growth in 2029.

Good.

But one more question:

Who will grow?

What will be the share of the wage earner while the national income grows?

To whom will productivity be reflected while production increases?

What will happen to the employee's purchasing power while companies' profits rise?

How much of this will come from high value-added production while exports increase?

The total size of the economy may increase. But if the citizen's life does not improve to the same extent, what will be the social equivalent of that growth?

Let us conclude our article by saying that Turkey's need is not an economy that grows numerically on paper, but a system that grows the income and purchasing power of its citizens.