The economic dimension of US-China competition

News regarding the economy is important for understanding the trajectory of politics and foreign policy. The first clues about rising and declining powers, new alliances, and cracks within those alliances come from the business pages. A report published in the newspaper Sözcü on October 18, 2026, titled "When the US realized this move by China, it was too late: It surrounded the world with banks," contained significant information showing the shifting balance of power in the world in recent years. The report stated that four Chinese banks occupied the top 4 spots on the list of the world's largest banks. The largest bank in the US could only enter the list at 5th place. The total size of China's top 4 banks had exceeded 26 trillion dollars. 

When this success of China in the banking sector is considered alongside the number of Chinese companies in the top 100 and top 500, the number of Chinese universities in the top 100 and top 500, the number of patents in China, the number of Chinese billionaires, the speed of the formation of a middle class in China, and China's production, investment, export, and trade capacity, it reveals a very simple truth. That is the great success the country has achieved in the economy with the model defined as socialism with Chinese characteristics. It is becoming the world's 2nd largest economy after the US. It is surpassing the US in calculations made based on purchasing power parity. 

Let us recall that in 1990, the US was producing more than China, 5.4 times more, in fact. Today, China has surpassed the US in production. According to some experts, it will surpass the US by the mid-2040s to become the world's largest economy. Today, China is the largest trading partner of around 150 countries and runs a surplus in its trade with 106 countries. In 2025, with a foreign trade volume of 52.9 billion dollars, it also became Turkey's largest foreign trade partner. 

This success of China in the economy is briefly called the Chinese miracle worldwide. The US cannot do much against these steps, these breakthroughs, and these offensives of China in the economy and foreign policy. During the Cold War years, Henry Kissinger, the famous US political science and foreign policy expert, national security advisor, and later Secretary of State, advocated for his country to move closer to China against the USSR. In this regard, during his time as the president's national security advisor, he ensured the first steps were taken in 1971 with the ping-pong diplomacy he authored. The process of normalizing bilateral relations and steps toward détente began in this way. 

Later, in the US, there were those who thought it would be good for the US if the diplomacy applied by Kissinger to prevent China's rise were constructed in reverse—that is, if Russia's support were obtained against China this time. But since neither the world is the old world, nor the US is the old US, nor is China the old China, this idea had no chance of success. It was also seen that it did not. And in many regions, countries, and fronts. It was seen in Syria. It was seen in Ukraine. It was seen in Iran. US aggression further solidified the already good relations between Russia and China. The US began to experience more problems with its European allies. Due to its banditry in Venezuela and especially the unlimited support it gives to Israeli aggression, the already high anti-Americanism in the world has risen even further. 

IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF US HEGEMONY 

We know; there are three main pillars of US hegemony. The first is the US economy, industry, technology, and the US dollar. The second is the US military power, its approximately 800 bases of various sizes around the world, and especially its air force and navy. The third is the US culture industry, the prevalence of English, US culture, music, cinema, lifestyle, academia, think tanks—in short, the elements of soft power and public diplomacy. In short, the US is a very influential, imperialist power with its navy and dollar as hard power elements, and its language and culture as soft power elements. 

We also know this; the decline in the US economic power inevitably causes its political power and soft power to decline as well. This naturally causes the US to panic, become anxious, and worry. The US's panic does not have only political, only military, or only diplomatic reasons. Most importantly, it has economic reasons. The US did not find what it hoped for in its moves against China through trade wars and customs tariffs. China did not take a step back. It retaliated. The trade wars turned around and hit the US as well, and its European allies too. These moves by the US did not yield the expected results in inflation, employment, exports, or trade.

In short, just as its decline in the economy weakens the US's hand in foreign policy, in the same way, China's economic and technological development is reflected in its foreign policy, international visibility, and reputation.