Houthi move in the Red Sea

Yemen is one of the most strategically important countries in the Middle East due to its location on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. The importance of Yemen, which has experienced instability for many years due to civil war, regional competition, and international interventions, has re-emerged with recent developments.

The fact that the Houthis, supported by Iran, have advanced along the Red Sea coast and captured the strategic Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and some important coastal regions has created a new situation regarding the security of the Bab-el-Mandeb. This development has significantly increased the Houthis' capacity to threaten and, if necessary, disrupt maritime traffic in the strait.

Primary target is Saudi Arabia

While implementing a naval embargo, the Houthis announced that they were primarily targeting ships and ports linked to Saudi Arabia. This situation shows that the Houthis are trying to exert direct pressure on Saudi Arabia. However, the threat to maritime traffic in the Red Sea also creates global economic and strategic consequences.

Furthermore, controlling strategic islands and certain points along the Red Sea coast provides the Houthis with a significant advantage in the region. Increasing security risks for ships and raising insurance costs without needing to completely close the strait could lead to maritime transport shifting to alternative routes. This could create a significant strategic outcome that increases the Houthis' influence in the region. Indeed, the diversion of ships to the Cape of Good Hope route due to attacks in the Red Sea since 2023 had increased transport times and costs. This situation is particularly important for Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia's vulnerability

Saudi Arabia uses the East-West oil pipeline and Red Sea ports as important alternative routes to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. However, the temporary closure of the pipeline following a drone attack from Iraq showed that these alternative routes are also not entirely free from security risks.

Therefore, developments in the Bab-el-Mandeb cannot be evaluated solely as a Yemen-Saudi Arabia conflict. Considering the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the fact that two important maritime passages have become risky at the same time creates a picture that could have regional and global consequences. It is precisely at this point that the stance of the US becomes important.

The US's cautious approach

The Houthis' control of certain strategic points in the Red Sea also poses a significant problem for the US. The emergence of a similar situation in the Bab-el-Mandeb following developments in the Strait of Hormuz could increase pressure on maritime and energy security in the region. For this reason, the extent to which the US will support Saudi Arabia against the Houthis is important.

While the US is acting cautiously regarding a direct military intervention against the Houthis, President Donald Trump stated that the Houthis do not want to fight the US.

Mecca Agreement in its first test

The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia also constitute an important test for the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. In this process, it is wondered whether the agreement will be implemented and what stance the parties will take. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, one of the high-level political officials of the Houthis, evaluated the Mecca Agreement as a symbolic agreement and warned Turkey and Pakistan, the parties to the agreement, not to enter the war on the side of Saudi Arabia, stating that otherwise, it would be costly.

It is noteworthy that the US has not responded to Saudi Arabia's request for direct military support at this stage. For this reason, eyes have turned to Turkey and Pakistan, the other parties to the Mecca Agreement.

Pakistan announced that there is currently no meeting within the scope of the agreement, but that it will act in accordance with the agreement when the time comes. The fact that this decision will not be easy can actually be seen from past examples. Pakistan did not act according to Saudi Arabia's policies in the past either. For example, it did not directly participate in Saudi Arabia's military operation during the Yemen War. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Pakistan avoids being a direct party to the Yemen war in today's developments as well.

The statements of Tahir Mahmood Ashrafi, Chairman of the Pakistan Ulema Council, point to a different dimension. He emphasized that the security and stability of Saudi Arabia are their red lines and that these lines will not be crossed. This statement can be evaluated more as a strong message of solidarity from religious circles in the country rather than political and military support.

Turkey also condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Thus, both parties to the agreement have demonstrated a stance against the attacks on Saudi Arabia at the political level.

In this context, in the first test of the Mecca Agreement, it seems likely that coordination will be provided in areas such as strengthening air defense and intelligence sharing instead of direct military intervention. However, there is no finalized decision on whether these will be implemented at this stage.

Institutionalizing cooperation within the scope of the agreement, strengthening joint defense capabilities, and supporting efforts to reduce regional tension stand out. Because the effects of conflicts in the region are not limited to the countries that are parties to the conflict; they spread to the entire region through energy, trade, transport, and investments. For this reason, the US and other states do not want what happened in the Strait of Hormuz to happen in the Bab-el-Mandeb.

Defining the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia solely on the Sunni-Shia or Arab-Persian axis carries the risk of the regional tension turning into a wider identity conflict.

Saudi Arabia's new calculation in Yemen

It can be said that Saudi Arabia is experiencing changes in its perspective on Yemen in line with recent developments. The Houthis, whom it wanted to neutralize in Yemen since 2015, have become stronger in Yemen today and have created an important sphere of influence in the Red Sea.

In this case, how Saudi Arabia will act remains uncertain. If it enters the war, the economic, political, and military cost of the war will increase. If it goes to negotiations, how successful it will be in stopping the Houthis will emerge as a separate question.

Allegations that Saudi Arabia brought mercenaries from Syria to fight in Yemen have also come to the agenda. In the past, it is known that Saudi Arabia utilized foreign fighters in Yemen. However, these allegations have not been confirmed.

The Houthis, supported by Iran, are an influential power in regional security balances. This situation also creates a significant security problem for Saudi Arabia.

As a result, ending regional power struggles in Yemen and developing a political solution that includes all parties is important for ensuring lasting stability in the country and the region.