Earthquake warning for Bursa from Prof. Dr. Seyitoğlu: 94-kilometer fault line could produce a magnitude 7 earthquake

Prof. Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu drew attention to the earthquake potential of a 94-kilometer fault line that he stated runs across the entire Bursa Plain.

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Earthquake warning for Bursa from Prof. Dr. Seyitoğlu: 94-kilometer fault line could produce a magnitude 7 earthquake

Ankara University Department of Geological Engineering faculty member Prof. Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu stated that a fault system of approximately 94 kilometers, which he noted runs beneath the Bursa Plain, carries the potential to produce a magnitude 7 earthquake.

Speaking at the “Bursa Discusses Earthquakes” panel hosted by the Osmangazi Municipality at the Panorama 1326 Conquest Museum, Seyitoğlu made assessments regarding the city's geological structure. In his presentation titled “A Comparison Between Basin-Cutting Faults in Terms of Earthquake Hazard,” the risks posed by faults in and around Bursa were discussed.

Meeting hall where speakers are located at the earthquake panel held in Bursa. — The city's earthquake risk was discussed at the “Bursa Discusses Earthquakes” panel.

ATTENTION DRAWN TO UNBROKEN LINE

Seyitoğlu stated that the faults in and around Bursa do not appear as long as the faults that caused the 1855 earthquakes on the Turkey Active Fault Map, but according to his own findings, there is a longer fault system that runs across the entire Bursa Plain. Noting that the length of this fault reaches approximately 94 kilometers, Seyitoğlu recorded that the system extends from one end of the plain to the other.

Long crack line resembling a surface rupture in arid terrain. — Experts state that the stress accumulated on fault lines is critical data in terms of earthquake hazard.

Touching upon the earthquakes that occurred in 1855, Seyitoğlu said that assessments based on historical damage records suggest that the system extending from Susurluk to Kestel may have broken, whereas the section extending from Kestel to the inner parts of the Yenişehir Plain appears to be unbroken.

City view showing residential areas spreading to the foothills in Bursa. — The Bursa Plain and surrounding settlements are at the center of discussions on earthquake risk.

Seyitoğlu emphasized that the annual displacement rates of faults and the stress accumulation dependent on this data are important for understanding earthquake potential. According to these calculations, he stated that the fault system passing through the Bursa Plain could produce a magnitude 7 earthquake.

The advantage for Bursa is that we know the fault is located within the plain before an earthquake occurs. In line with this information, necessary precautions must be taken.
— Prof. Dr. Gürol Seyitoğlu

Seyitoğlu explained that there are also faults in different regions of Turkey that run across plains, and that some fault traces can become more apparent with surface ruptures after major earthquakes. He stated that the most important point for Bursa is having knowledge about the location of the fault before the risk materializes.