Bitcoin has recovered some of the losses it suffered following a $6.3 billion cyberattack on Binance, climbing back above $78,000. However, despite the recovery in prices, optimistic year-end expectations in the options market have weakened significantly.
According to pricing data shared by Nick Forster, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency options platform Derive.xyz, the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas has fallen from 6% to 3.5%. For the same maturity, the probability of it rising above $90,000 is calculated at 14%, while the probability of it exceeding $80,000 is at 44%.
Market pricing indicates that investors are assigning a higher probability to Bitcoin finishing the year below $80,000. The probability of it falling below $70,000 by Christmas is priced at 20%.
RISK PERCEPTION IN THE MARKET HAS CHANGED
Bitcoin had dropped to as low as $76,377 on Friday, marking its lowest level in the last six weeks. In trading on November 2, the cryptocurrency rose to $78,854, trading around $78,268 with an increase of approximately 1.7% during the day.
Selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market had intensified following an attack in which North Korea-linked hackers stole approximately $6.3 billion in assets from Binance. The attack brought concerns regarding the security of digital assets held by investors on exchanges back to the agenda.
Binance gradually resumed withdrawal transactions on Sunday, which it had halted last week due to security checks. The exchange reported that approximately 95% of the stolen assets had been replaced, and the remaining portion consisted of assets with lower liquidity.
On the short-term agenda for investors are the US midterm elections, the Fed's monetary policy outlook, bond yields, the course of the dollar, and fund flows into Bitcoin ETFs. In the Derive options market, a price movement of approximately 3.1% is expected for Bitcoin during the 24-hour period covering election night.
Options pricing shows a 26% probability that Bitcoin will rise back above $80,000 by Friday. Analysts point out that macroeconomic data and central bank decisions in November could be influential on risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.
News Source: 12punto
