As the countdown continues for the raise that millions of retirees will receive in January, options such as flat-rate increases, welfare shares, tiered raises, and citizenship salaries are on the agenda alongside inflation adjustments.
Social Security Expert Emin Yılmaz shared possible calculations regarding retiree and civil servant salaries during a broadcast on Habertürk. According to Yılmaz, inflation data for October, November, and December will clarify the raise rate.
INFLATION DATA WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
Reminding that retiree pensions are increased twice a year at the CPI rate, Yılmaz stated that a 17.76 percent raise was reflected in salaries during the first six months of 2026. He noted that the inflation difference for the first three months of the second half of the year was calculated at 5.56 percent.
Stating that October inflation will be announced on Tuesday, November 3, Yılmaz predicted that the monthly increase could come in between 2.11 percent and 2.40 percent. Based on year-end expectations, it is estimated that the January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could settle at the 10.08 percent level.
The increase for civil servants and civil servant retirees is calculated differently due to collective bargaining provisions. Yılmaz stated that if inflation occurs around 10 percent, the raise for this group could be approximately 8 percent.
In this scenario, it is calculated that the lowest civil servant retiree pension could rise from 31,526 liras to 34,054 liras. The possibility of an increase from 66,187 liras to 71,495 liras for a single civil servant salary, and from 70,257 liras to 75,891 liras for a married civil servant salary, was mentioned.
TWO FIGURES DISCUSSED FOR FLAT-RATE RAISES
One of the most notable topics in Yılmaz's assessment was the flat-rate raise. Stating that a flat-rate increase means paying the same amount to everyone regardless of the pension amount, Yılmaz also referred to the 8,077 lira flat-rate increase previously given to civil servants.
I would like to point out an important detail here. That is, two figures are being discussed regarding the flat-rate raise. One of the two figures here is 10,000 TL, and the other is 15,000 TL.
Yılmaz said that the impact of a 10,000 lira flat-rate difference on the budget for 18 million retirees is calculated at 2.16 trillion liras, and the 15,000 lira difference at 3.24 trillion liras. He stated that these amounts are currently being evaluated within the scope of impact analyses.
In the basic calculation made for the lowest pension, it was stated that if an increase of around 10.08 percent is applied to the amount of 23,552 liras, the pension could rise to 25,926 liras.
In the welfare share option, an additional increase on top of the inflation raise is on the agenda. According to Yılmaz's calculation, the lowest pension could rise to 27,084 liras with a 5 percent welfare share, 28,262 liras with a 10 percent welfare share, 29,440 liras with a 15 percent welfare share, and 30,617 liras with a 20 percent welfare share.
Yılmaz stated that rates between 10 percent and 20 percent stand out for the welfare share. However, the inflation data for the last three months of the year must be completed for the raise rates to be finalized.
Other options on the table include tiered raises based on the number of premium days, different applications for working and non-working retirees, additional support for citizens over 65 and disabled citizens, and the possibility of making payments to low-income groups within the scope of a citizenship salary.
News Source: 12punto
