ING Global has maintained its forecast regarding the year-end inflation outlook, despite October inflation in Turkey coming in slightly above expectations. The bank assessed that annual inflation could remain below 30 percent by the end of 2026.
The assessment noted that while the October data temporarily interrupted the downward trend in inflation, it did not provide a decisive signal sufficient to change the direction of monetary policy on its own.
According to ING, the changes in wording in the latest Monetary Policy Committee statement from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) indicate that rate cuts could continue in December, provided there is no significant deterioration in the conditions that initiated the rate-cutting cycle.
The bank identified uncertainties in oil prices and their potential reflections on other commodity prices as key risks for the short-term inflation outlook. It was emphasized that if tensions between the US and Iran escalate permanently, the gradual phasing out of the sliding-scale fuel price mechanism (eşel mobil) could increase price pressures.
Conflicts in the Middle East and potential deviations in the disinflation process were also listed among the risk factors. ING stated that the TCMB will closely monitor demand conditions, international reserves, and the behavior of depositors when determining its policy steps in the coming period.
The bank also reported that the Inflation Report to be published on November 12 could provide important signals regarding the course of inflation and the scope for additional monetary easing in the future.
News Source: 12punto
