The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) October 2026 Market Participants Survey has revealed a new calculation regarding the raise rates that civil servants, retired civil servants, and SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees may receive on January 1, 2027.
In the survey conducted between October 12-14 with 71 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors, forecasts of 1.18 percent for November inflation and 0.97 percent for December inflation were made. If these expectations are realized, the six-month inflation for the July-December period will reach 10.62 percent.
According to TUIK data, consumer prices increased by 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August, 1.84 percent in September, and 2.58 percent in October. Thus, the cumulative inflation for the first four months of the second half of the year was 8.28 percent. When the expectations in the survey for November and December are added to the calculation, the six-month rate upon which the raise calculation is based is calculated as 10.62 percent.
HOW WAS THE RAISE CALCULATION FORMED?
In the salary increases for civil servants and retired civil servants, the collective bargaining agreement raise and the inflation difference are taken into account together. In the event that the six-month inflation is 10.62 percent, the inflation difference for civil servants will be 3.39 percent. Together with the 5 percent collective bargaining agreement raise determined for the first half of 2027, the total increase will rise to 8.56 percent.
For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, the raise rate is determined directly based on the six-month inflation in the July-December period. For this reason, if the November and December forecasts in the survey are realized, the January raise for these retirees will be 10.62 percent.
| Group | Expected January 2027 raise | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Civil servant and retired civil servant | 8.56 percent | 3.39 percent inflation difference + 5 percent collective bargaining raise |
| SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree | 10.62 percent | Six-month inflation in the July-December period |
On the other hand, the survey data does not mean the definitive raise rate. The final increases to be applied in January will become clear once TUIK announces the December inflation data.
News Source: 12punto
