Kassandra's cry: Will Turkey face the facts?

A voice that rose before the walls of Troy thousands of years ago is echoing once again across Turkey today. Kassandra cried out, “This horse is a trap, it will be the end of Troy!” but no one took her seriously.

The Trojans underestimated the warnings, the wooden horse entered the city, and Troy burned. Kassandra’s prophecies came true one by one, but it was too late. Today, in many fields from economy to education, from agriculture to the environment, “modern-day Kassandras” are warning society; however, these warnings are often suppressed with the label of “pessimism” or lost in the noise of the political agenda. Then, when a crisis arrives at the doorstep, the same question is always asked: “How did we not see this?” Crises do not emerge out of nowhere; they are the result of problems that have accumulated over years. Facing the facts can be painful, but ignoring them carries a much heavier price. Turkey still stands at a threshold from which it can return—but time is rapidly running out. Now is the time: it is necessary to listen to Kassandra this time.

THE FRAGILE STRUCTURE OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Global Dependency and “Hormonal” Growth: Neo-liberal policies implemented since the 1980s have made the Turkish economy increasingly dependent on the global system through finance, investment, and trade channels. While growth increased during periods of rapid capital inflows, the economy drifted into stagnation during periods of slowdown, revealing a structure vulnerable to crises. Ultimately, a “hormonal” growth model based on consumption rather than production was adopted.

Populist Policies and Deepening Fragility: The fact that political decision-makers ignore structural problems and prefer populist, short-term solutions instead of meritocratic staff and strong institutions has deepened fragility. In this order, where the rentier economy is at the center, social assistance is instrumentalized; meritless appointments, partisan hiring, and populist promises made before elections (wage increases, amnesties, incentives, deferrals, bonuses) create an unsustainable economic order.

Need for Economic and Political Reform: High inflation, low reserves, rising external debt, and political uncertainties clearly show that structural reforms have been postponed for years. Turkey achieving an economic structure that is shock-resistant, sustainable, and predictable is possible only through comprehensive reforms not just in the economic, but also in the political and social spheres. Without strong institutions and permanent reforms, economic fluctuations triggered by political crises will continue.

Income Distribution and the Erosion of the Middle Class: The gap in income and wealth distribution is growing every year. While the richest 10% control more than half of the country's wealth, middle and lower-income groups try to survive by borrowing. Real wages are melting against inflation, and the proportion of those living on minimum wage is increasing. The melting of the middle class is a serious threat not only to economic but also to political stability and social cohesion. As the middle class shrinks, social polarization increases, and the probability of anti-system reactions grows.

Geopolitical and Financial Vulnerabilities: High dependence on energy imports turns fluctuations in exchange rates into a shock effect in the domestic market. The rising energy bill increases the current account deficit and heightens dependence on external financing. High CDS premiums and falling investment-grade ratings make Turkey more sensitive to global risk appetite. Concerns about judicial independence, political interventions in municipalities, and polarizing rhetoric drive away both domestic and foreign investors; growth slows down, and the risk of unemployment and social unrest climbs.

Deepening Imbalances: The Turkish economy has long been far from a sustainable growth path. The inadequacy of technological production capacity, the lack of qualified labor, the orientation of capital toward consumption instead of production, and the erosion of the rule of law condemn the country to the middle-income trap. Today's growth relies on external debt, consumption, and public spending; this model is now clogged. Permanent growth is not possible without ensuring productivity increases, qualified employment, and strong institutional structures. Turkey returning to a healthy development path is possible through a transformation centered on a production economy, based on high technology and innovation, and the restoration of the rule of law.

Otherwise, it will become impossible to escape the vicious cycle of crises, and economic fragility will deepen further.

MERITOCRATIC STAFF, STRONG INSTITUTIONS, AND MORAL DECAY

Merit and Transparent Management: For Turkey to stand back up, postponed decisions must be implemented with courage. Public administration must be shaped according to the principle of merit; institutions must be equipped with knowledge and expertise, and decision-making processes must be conducted in a transparent and accountable manner. Society should not just be a spectator of this process, but an active stakeholder and auditor.

Partisanship and Institutional Erosion: The current order, where loyalty is placed before merit, has normalized partisan appointments, nepotistic hiring, and the transfer of public resources to specific groups. This corruption is rapidly decaying not only the economy but also the social fabric. Strengthening democratic institutions and restoring trust in public administration is only possible through appointments based on competence and expertise.

Rentier Economy and the Damage to Social Justice: The shaping of economic resources through rent distribution instead of productive sectors creates both inefficiency and weakens the sense of social justice. Zoning amnesties, non-transparent public tenders, and cronyist practices deeply shake the belief in justice and trust in society.

Erosion of Social Values: In this corrupt environment, individuals are turning toward a mindset that prioritizes personal interests over public interest. The system of social values is eroding, and the “everyone for themselves” mentality is becoming widespread. This is not just an ethical problem; it is a serious threat that accelerates social disintegration and prepares the ground for greater crises in the future.

Solution and Roadmap: Turkey standing back up is possible with a management approach based on merit, transparency, and accountability. Trust can be revived in society through the construction of strong institutions, the establishment of justice, and the effective and fair use of public resources. This transformation requires not only a political but also a cultural and moral mobilization. Every individual must maintain the principle of honesty in their own field and raise their voice against injustice. Only then can both economic and social collapse be prevented.

ARE WE MISSING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON GROWTH?

Market and State Balance: In our recent articles, we touched upon the need to re-discuss fundamental problems such as justice, poverty, income distribution, structural reforms, and sustainable development. In a day when the neo-liberal approach is insufficient to produce solutions to market failures, the question of whether there is a greater need for the “invisible hand” or the “visible hand” that intervenes in times of crisis—that is, the state—gains importance. The real issue is to ensure long-term efficiency, sustainable growth, and development by establishing the right balance between the state and the market.

Social Justice and Inclusive Development: Reducing development only to growth rates pushes the solution of social problems into the background. Yet, true development aims to increase prosperity without lowering anyone's quality of life. Receiving a fair share of the national income, eliminating poverty and hunger, ensuring equality of opportunity, and supporting regional development are the primary duties of the social state.

The Necessity of Structural Reforms: For qualified and sustainable development, structural reforms must be implemented without delay. Increasing the capacity of institutions, establishing the rule of law, and advancing democratization are the cornerstones of inclusive growth. Development policies must be built on the principles of freedom, justice, equality, and solidarity.

A Hopeful and Secure Future: When these steps are taken, it will be possible to build a free, fair, and secure Turkey. The duty of the social state is not only to intervene in times of crisis; it is to provide hope and stability by offering a long-term vision to the entire society.

True development passes through steps that improve human life, not through growth figures.

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY: THE IGNORED CRISIS

Once one of the rare countries that could be self-sufficient in agriculture, Turkey has experienced a serious decline in the last twenty years. Small-scale producers are struggling to survive against rising costs of diesel, fertilizer, seeds, and pesticides and are increasingly withdrawing from production. The late announcement of purchase prices or their failure to cover costs makes it almost impossible for farmers to plan.

The effects of climate change are now being felt directly. Drought, extreme rainfall, frost events, and yield losses are no longer just the subject of reports; they have become a part of the farmer's daily life. This structural decline in agriculture fuels food inflation, deepens rural poverty, and increases dependence on imports.

Today, Turkey has become dependent on foreign sources for many basic products such as wheat, sunflower oil, pulses, and even livestock. This fragility turns price fluctuations in global markets into a direct crisis in the domestic market and leaves the country vulnerable in terms of food security.

LOSS OF QUALITY IN EDUCATION AND BRAIN DRAIN

Education is the cornerstone of long-term development and social welfare. However, the education system in Turkey has taken on an unstable structure due to political interventions that have been going on for years. Constantly changing curricula, examination systems, and management approaches have weakened the quality of education by creating uncertainty for both students and teachers.

Today, Turkey lags behind the OECD average in reading, mathematics, and science literacy in international assessments such as PISA. While the inadequacy of vocational training deepens the shortage of intermediate staff in the labor market, the increasing unemployment among university graduates makes the phenomenon of “diploma-holding unemployment” permanent. As a result, young people are driven to despair, and qualified individuals migrate abroad. Brain drain is not just an economic loss; it also means the erosion of the country's intellectual and social capital.

Youth Crisis and the NEET Reality: The rate of young people in Turkey who are neither in education nor in employment (NEET) has reached the 30% level, which is more than twice the OECD average (14.1%). Young people dropping out of education or failing to find work after graduation pushes them out of the system. This is not just an unemployment problem; it means social exclusion, loss of belonging, and the growth of social risks.

Despair, loneliness, psychological problems, and tendencies toward radicalization are seen more commonly among NEET youth. Since these young people are left out of economic growth, potential productivity also remains idle. This situation means a loss not only for today but also for tomorrow.

ALARM BELLS IN INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INDICES

Development cannot be measured only by economic growth rates or per capita income. People's access to quality education, living a long and healthy life, ensuring gender equality, and having freedoms under guarantee are also fundamental elements of development. For this reason, national and international organizations are increasingly evaluating development within a more inclusive and sustainable framework.

True prosperity is possible with high income along with quality education, a strong health system, the effective functioning of justice, a clean environment, and a safe social environment. For Turkey to raise its level of development, it must implement policies that put the human at the center, observe equality of opportunity, develop human capital, and reduce poverty.

However, Turkey has been experiencing a decline in many international rankings in recent years. The decline in areas such as press freedom, judicial independence, quality of education, transparency, and democratic standards negatively affects not only domestic politics but also the perception of foreign investors. This trend delays development goals and weakens the potential for sustainable growth.

Turkey's rise again will be possible by implementing a human-centered development vision and re-establishing trust and quality in every field from education to justice, from freedom to transparent management.

SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION: THE LOST COMMON GROUND

Turkey has been experiencing an increasingly deepening polarization in recent years. Political, ideological, and lifestyle differences have practically divided society into opposing camps. This disintegration is not limited to the political scene; it also damages social relations, neighborliness, and even family ties. Voices trying to understand each other crash against the walls of intolerance and prejudice.

Just like Kassandra’s prophecies, warnings that this social erosion threatens social peace are often ignored. Hate speech spread on social media, political rhetoric that feeds polarization, and language that constantly reproduces the concept of the “other” are slowly destroying the polyphony that is society's greatest wealth.

In a society where everyone believes in their own “truth” and there is no common story left, building a healthy future is becoming increasingly impossible. The reconstruction of social peace requires meeting on common values, making a mindset that sees differences as wealth dominant, and strengthening dialogue channels.

Social peace will be possible when we see our differences not as hostility but as wealth.

ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS: THE IGNORED ABYSS

Although Turkey is one of the countries that will feel the effects of the climate crisis most deeply, environmental problems still remain behind development and economic growth goals. Forest fires, floods caused by concrete construction, and mucilage disasters in the seas have become nature's increasingly loud screams. These events are the concrete form of the warnings made for years and the risks voiced by scientists.

Unfortunately, just as Kassandra’s warnings about the destruction of Troy were not taken into account, the warnings of environmentalists and scientists are often ignored. Ecosystems are sacrificed for the sake of short-term economic interests, and profit-oriented projects destroy natural habitats. This approach cannot move sustainable development goals beyond wishes on paper.

Taking nature's warnings into account is the greatest legacy we can leave to future generations.

CONCLUSION: THE WAY OUT IS TO LISTEN TO KASSANDRA THIS TIME

Turkey is in a multi-dimensional spiral of crisis, from economic fragility to social disintegration, from the loss of quality in education to environmental disasters. These problems feed each other, and as solutions are postponed, the cost increases. Facing the facts can be painful; however, ignoring them carries a much heavier price in the future.

The way out passes through the construction of meritocratic staff, strong institutions, and a fair economy. The education system must be reorganized to train qualified labor, agriculture and industry policies must be structured with a focus on productivity, injustices in income distribution must be eliminated, and social peace must be re-established. A climate of trust must be restored by strengthening the rule of law, transparency, press freedom, and democratic rights. The economy should focus on production and innovation instead of rent; discipline and tax justice must be established in public finance.

When these steps are taken, Turkey can move away from a fragile and short-term growth model and enter a path of fair, productive, and sustainable development for everyone. Kassandra’s warning is actually a call to all of us: Do not remain silent, question, and face the facts. Listening to Kassandra today is the only way to prevent tomorrow's crises and build a hopeful future.