Is it time for the Turkish Parliament to revoke its 31-year-old 'Casus Belli' decision?

While Greece has occupied over 20 islands and islets in the Aegean—some almost right under our noses—since 2004, arming them in violation of the Treaty of Lausanne, and has surrounded us with the US, EU, and Israel, and while we were expecting the “Blue Homeland” bill regarding maritime jurisdiction areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean to be brought to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM)—a bill that was announced to have been postponed to October due to “technical reasons” or to avoid tension before the NATO summit attended by Trump—Foreign Minister Fidan has extended such “olive branches” to Greece that it is hard to believe.

Fidan was in Brussels three days ago with Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek and Minister of Interior Mustafa Çiftçi. The reason for the visit was a meeting with their Belgian counterparts regarding bilateral cooperation on issues such as “counter-terrorism, judicial and police cooperation, defense industry, consular affairs, visas, and migration.” On this occasion, Fidan not only held bilateral meetings with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, but also gave a bombshell (!) interview to the Greek newspaper Ta Nea.

Let us list what Fidan said point by point.

- He attributed the anti-Turkish rhetoric to Greece's internal politics and rhetoric, and the failure to resolve problems to “not being able to afford the political cost”...

- Emphasizing that since 2023, the governments of both countries have decided to prioritize resolving existing problems, avoiding the creation of tension, and focusing on confidence-building measures, he said, “Our cooperation is going quite well so far. At least we no longer have dogfights. The Aegean has become a calmer place in the last 3 years.”...

- While recalling that Erdoğan has made repeated efforts to work with every elected Greek prime minister, he noted that strong political leadership is needed on both sides for a solution...

- Regarding the “Blue Homeland” bill on jurisdiction areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, which the pro-government media carried in headlines for days in recent months but was later rumored to be brought to the TBMM in October for various reasons, he stated, “There is no such thing as a Blue Homeland bill. The issue of the marine park has not yet been opened for discussion.”

“Casus Belli” Was Not a War Threat

Most importantly, regarding the TBMM's decision on June 8, 1995, to consider Greece's notification that it had accepted the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and extended its territorial waters to 12 miles as “Casus Belli - a cause for war,” he said:

“Many people think that 'casus belli' is a threat of war. This is the Greek version. However, we did not characterize it as 'casus belli.' This is a declaration published by the TBMM in 1995, not a law; it indicates that if Greece extends its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles without resolving the issue between them and Turkey, the Turkish government must take all necessary measures to prevent this... The preventive declaration has contributed to the preservation of peace to this day. This does not constitute a threat of war. In fact, Greece has never explicitly stated that it would not take such a step before the issue with Turkey is resolved. We are maintaining the status quo by waiting to resolve our problems in a civilized manner. This issue is solvable.”

The Advice: “Don't Miss Out on Erdoğan”

Immediately after saying, “This issue is solvable,” Fidan noted the following:

“Only President Erdoğan has the necessary political legitimacy to demonstrate the political will needed to solve the problem. My advice to my Greek friends is this: while he is still there, seize this moment and cooperate with him.”

Where Do We Remember These Similar Words From?

Before detailing the “casus belli” interpretation, let us draw attention to the following regarding Fidan's other assessments:

- Since the anti-Turkish sentiment in Greece is not a matter of internal politics or “not being able to afford the political cost,” but rather the unchanging state policy of Megali Idea, they do not lean towards a “solution” despite all of Ankara's efforts. Indeed, his current interlocutor, Prime Minister Mitsotakis, has also repeatedly stated that “Greece has never changed its strategy towards Turkey”...

- As for “the Aegean becoming a calmer place, at least with no dogfights” since 2023 in line with the decision taken by the two governments; what a coincidence, both the previous and current Foreign Ministers, Dendias (now Minister of Defense) and Fidan's “dear friend” Gerapetritis, have said that “Turkey has stopped violations in the Aegean, no flights are being made over the islands,” and thanks to this, “calm prevails in the Aegean”...

- Another coincidence or similarity; Nikos Kotzias, Greece's Foreign Minister between 2015-2018, while criticizing the “Kemalist opposition” that reacted to the occupation of the islands, said, “No one but Erdoğan can solve the practical issues between us and Turkey... The center of power in Turkey is Erdoğan.”, “Erdoğan is the only reliable leader in Turkey to talk to... If you want to discuss Turkish-Greek relations, you will meet and reach an agreement with Erdoğan. The Cyprus issue cannot be solved without Erdoğan either.” When then-Prime Minister Tsipras visited the Halki Seminary in 2019, Georgios Katrougalos, who was the Foreign Minister at the time, emphasized that if a decision were to be made regarding the opening of the Halki Seminary, it could “only be taken by Erdoğan”...

Green Light Has Been Given Since 2002

As for “casus belli”; Yes, this expression is not in the motion published by the TBMM on June 8, 1995, with the participation of all parties, but its last sentence is as follows:

“While the TBMM hopes that the Greek Government will not decide to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean beyond 6 miles in a way that would upset the balance established by Lausanne, in the event of such a possibility, it has decided to grant the Government of the Republic of Turkey all powers, including those deemed militarily necessary, to preserve and defend our country's vital interests, and to announce this situation to the Greek and world public with friendly sentiments.”

After this decision of the TBMM, which also bears the signature of Abdullah Gül, the Group Deputy Chairman of the RP, the predecessor of the AKP, the 12-mile issue was included in the National Security Policy Document, or the “red book,” which determines Turkey's foreign policy, as a “priority threat.” However, when it was announced in 2010 that this document had been changed under the pretext of negotiations with the EU and that the 12 miles were “no longer considered a priority threat,” the Greek press celebrated, saying, “Turkey has accepted the extension of Greek territorial waters to 12 miles.”

Eight years later, in 2018, Greece extended its territorial waters in the Aegean to 12 miles with a law. Upon this, while the Greek Ambassador, who was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was told that the declaration accepted by the TBMM in 1995 was still valid, AKP Spokesperson Ömer Çelik warned, “The Greek side should not forget the warning of the Supreme Assembly in 1995. The Republic of Turkey will not hesitate to do what is necessary.”

Let us also look at the AKP's “casus belli” record.

- In November 2002, before he was even Prime Minister, when Erdoğan made his first visit to Greece, Foreign Minister Papandreou asked for the “casus belli” decision taken by the TBMM to be revoked. Erdoğan said he would convey the issue to the Speaker of the TBMM...

- During his visit to Greece in 2004, when asked whether the AKP Government would revoke this decision with its numerical majority in parliament, Erdoğan replied, “The parties concerned are working on the issue. There are problems carried over from the past to the present. These problems have not disappeared. But it is our duty to eliminate these problems. We are determined and faithful on this path.”...

- In 2005, the then Speaker of the TBMM, Bülent Arınç, stating that it was unseemly for there to be a declaration of war between two neighboring countries and that it was time to change the “Casus Belli” decision, said, “I researched the issue. Actually, there is no decision taken in the General Assembly of the Parliament. There are only statements by the group deputy chairmen of the period and a declaration published in the Parliament. In other words, there is no binding decision.”...

- When Erdoğan went to Athens in 2017, this time in his capacity as President, he spoke about the need to overcome troubles like “casus belli” and suggested, “Let our technical staff work on these in the best way possible.”...

- Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who was the Foreign Minister in 2018 when Greece passed the 12-mile law, explained—again to the Ta Nea newspaper, just as Fidan is saying now—that the TBMM's declaration was not a declaration of war (casus belli) as deliberately distorted in Greece, but a political warning...

- Finally, at the NATO Summit in July, Erdoğan said, “Almost none of my nation knows about this 'casus belli' issue. If you ask what it is, they don't know. Therefore, I don't think there is any need to keep our nation occupied with these. We are already telling our Greek friends, 'Let's not occupy either the Greek citizen or our citizen with these. Let's sit down, talk, and finish the job.' This is our step.”

In short; it is understood from Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statements to Ta Nea that the next step is the revocation of this 31-year-old decision, which has been on the AKP's agenda since 2002.

Given that Turkey's withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention, which was accepted by the TBMM, was ensured by Erdoğan's single signature; that as emphasized back in 2004, the AKP's “numerical majority in parliament” continues; and most importantly, that Erdoğan himself, moreover in Greece, said “Lausanne should be updated,” what force would “casus belli” have?!

Müyesser YILDIZ

October 23, 2026