A country racing rapidly toward destruction and disaster

Strategy is the set of methods used to achieve a predetermined purpose or goal. “Geopolitics”, on the other hand, is the application of strategy to geography. In other words, “geopolitics” is the art of using a country's geography in world politics. A country's geography is the immutable element of geopolitics.

Turkey's geopolitical position has been one of the defining elements of its foreign policy.

Turkey knew how to use this geopolitical superiority well, especially during the Second World War and the Cold War era.

Particularly during the Cold War, the concentration of world events within the triangle of the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus brought Turkey's geopolitical value to the forefront, and foreign policy was determined accordingly. During this period, national interests guided foreign policy.

However, in recent times, although the geography has not changed and there has been no decrease in geopolitical importance, there has been a noticeable erosion in Turkey's external weight and image. Turkey has moved away from the principles of “Full Independence” and “Realism” in its foreign policy.

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Politics is conducted to provide rational solutions to problems in a way that ensures the welfare and happiness of society. “National Interests” determine foreign policy. The two important pillars of national interests are the continuity of the state (survival) and the welfare of society. In other words, any step taken in foreign policy must make a positive contribution to the continuity of the state and the welfare of society.

Especially in recent times, foreign policy has been implemented as a continuation of domestic policy. In order to create excitement in society and influence people, rhetoric has taken precedence over reality. Yet, five thousand years of written history prove with examples that ended in disaster that rhetoric, emotionalism, and ambition can never be a strategy.

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The year is 1631… At the beginning of the collapse process that emerged in the Ottoman Empire, Koçi Bey presented a report to Sultan Murad IV. In the report, which went down in history as the Koçi Bey Risalesi (Treatise of Koçi Bey), the alienation of statesmen from the public, the abandonment of the merit system, the granting of positions to those who do not deserve them, and the increase in nepotism and bribery are listed as the reasons for the Ottoman decline.

The Ottoman Empire did not eliminate these problems. Nepotism, corruption, and the collapse of the merit system paved the way to the abyss. And, with the Second Siege of Vienna in 1683, the retreat and loss of territory began for the Ottomans. The Danube provinces and the Balkan geography were lost. At the end of the First World War, the Ottoman Empire effectively disintegrated.

The transformation of the Balkan War into a disaster is the most dramatic link in this process. Lieutenant Colonel Mustafa Kemal heavily criticized the commanders who caused the Balkan Tragedy in his book “Conversations with Officers and Commanders.”

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Until the 2010s, Turkey was facing the threat of the PKK separatist terrorist organization. From the 2010s to the present, the threats have both changed shape and multiplied.

- Syria, which has a 911-kilometer border with Turkey, and Iraq, which has a 378-kilometer border, have now turned into a geography that produces terrorism. No country in the world would want to be neighbors with a geography that produces terrorism along a 1300-kilometer border.

Turkey is in this position. The PYD/PKK terrorist organization, which threatens Turkey's territorial integrity, has occupied 25 percent of Syria thanks to the US and has been elevated to the level of a statelet that is ten times more powerful than the PKK terrorist organization.

Even if the PKK terrorist organization were completely neutralized, the PYD/PKK terrorist organization has turned into a greater survival problem.

- Turkey has become the country hosting the most refugees/migrants in the world. No country in the world would want to be in the position of being the country hosting the most migrants in the world.

- Idlib in Syria, which has a 130-kilometer border with Turkey, has been turned into a Little Afghanistan by the US. All of the ISIS and Al-Qaeda derivative organizations that exist in Afghanistan are in Idlib.

Which country in the world would want to be neighbors with a Little Afghanistan?

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Facing the greatest survival problems in its history, Turkey continues to take steps that will increase threats instead of eliminating these survival problems. Iraqi citizens under the age of 15 and over the age of 50 have been granted free entry to Turkey without a visa.

Of Iraq's 46 million population, 17 million are under 15 and 6 million are over 50.

In other words, 23 million Iraqis will be able to enter Turkey without a visa. If only 10% of those 23 million take advantage of this right, that makes 2.3 million.

What other country besides Turkey would implement visa exemption for a country like Iraq, which has a very weak economy and has not been able to fully ensure its own security?..

There is no answer…

EU countries, led by Germany and the Netherlands, are taking strict measures for migrants. They are closing their borders. They are deporting illegal migrants. Iran announced that it would deport two million illegal migrants.

Turkey, which hosts the most migrants in the world, seems satisfied with the situation…

Instead of taking steps to send refugees back to their countries, it is introducing visa liberalization for Iraqis.

The EU is so pleased with Turkey for keeping migrants who would go to EU countries within its own borders... Yet history always says that 10-15 years from now, this policy of Turkey will lead to destruction and disaster. But there is no one listening…

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“They say history repeats itself.” The Law of Causality, however, says this: “An object behaves according to its own nature. What an object will do is determined by what it is. A thing is what it is. It is not something else.”

This law, of course, does not apply to societies with short memories…

And, if yesterday's policies, which were seen as solutions, are becoming the main problem today, it means there is a mistake first in the strategy and then in the tactics.