Earthquake warning causing concern for Marmara: The danger is now closer!

According to research published in the American press and the peer-reviewed scientific journal Science, earthquakes that have occurred in recent years along the Main Marmara Fault, which runs through the Sea of Marmara, are progressing toward a fault segment believed to be locked. The study reveals that the risk of a major earthquake in Istanbul is increasing.

The research evaluates the earthquakes of 2011, 2012, and 2019, along with the 6.2 magnitude tremor that occurred on April 23, 2024, collectively. This activity strengthens the possibility of a 7.0 magnitude or larger earthquake in Istanbul. Scientists state that while it is impossible to predict the timing of an earthquake, the risk remains.

The research also includes a warning that even an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher could cause serious structural damage in Istanbul. The activity of faults located in different parts of the Sea of Marmara continues to sound alarm bells for a major earthquake in the region.

Warnings regarding the expected major earthquake in the Sea of Marmara are supported by recent research from both domestic and international scientists. Geologist Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz evaluated the issue during an appearance on NTV. Tüysüz stated that the earthquake risk in the Marmara region has remained valid since August 17, 1999. He pointed out that recent domestic and international studies have yielded the same results.

Prof. Dr. Tüysüz stated that following the 6.2 magnitude earthquake on April 23, aftershocks have been moving eastward, and this activity is causing stress to accumulate on the faults off the coast of the Princes' Islands and Avcılar. This situation reinforces scientific views that the timing of the expected Istanbul earthquake could be brought forward. Tüysüz indicated that the eastward progression of aftershocks has increased tension in the region and that stress is re-accumulating on the faults.

BEWARE OF SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS

Tüysüz stated that claims on social media such as "there will be no earthquake in Marmara" have no scientific basis. "The last major earthquake in Marmara occurred in 1766," said Tüysüz, emphasizing that the risk in the region has not diminished since that day and that the timing of an earthquake cannot be predicted.

NO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM ON SLOW-MOVING FAULTS

Tüysüz noted that in some parts of the Sea of Marmara, faults move slowly and a major earthquake is not expected in these areas in the short term. However, he stated that the fault zone extending from off the coast of Mimar Sinan to the Princes' Islands and the Gulf of İzmit has not ruptured for a long time and carries risk. The tension on the faults in this region could be a trigger for a major tremor in the future.

Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz said that Istanbul must absolutely prepare for a major earthquake. Pointing out that there are approximately 1 million 200 thousand buildings in Istanbul, Tüysüz stated that urban transformation alone would not be sufficient. He underscored that the public must be educated about pre- and post-earthquake procedures and that regular drills must be implemented.

BUILDING QUALITY IS OF VITAL IMPORTANCE

Tüysüz issued special warnings for structures in regions bordering the Sea of Marmara. He said that building quality is of great importance, especially in areas with old stream beds and weak soil structures.