Retirees have their eyes and ears on this development... January raise becoming clear!

The rate of increase to be applied to the salaries of civil servants and retirees in January 2026 is becoming increasingly clear. In his latest assessment, SGK Chief Specialist İsa Karakaş reported that the raise rate has been finalized in the range of 16 to 18 percent.

Karakaş explained that in addition to the salary increases, a base difference of 1,000 TL is almost guaranteed, but the possibility of a flat-rate raise appears weak this year.

As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced at 3.23 percent, and the three-month cumulative increase was announced at 7.5 percent. According to these data, a 13.64 percent increase rate and a 1,000 TL base difference have already been finalized for civil servants.

According to year-end inflation forecasts, the total raise rate is projected to be between 16.5 and 18.5 percent. This rate indicates that salary increases will follow a path parallel to the inflation level.

In his statement, SGK Chief Specialist İsa Karakaş drew attention not only to the raise rates but also to the decline in the purchasing power of citizens.

He summarized the economic picture with the words, "The increase in basic food and housing prices has seriously reduced purchasing power. Citizens are still groaning at the market checkout."

Karakaş reminded of the 28.5 percent official inflation target set by the government for 2025 and the 29.86 percent market expectation of the Central Bank. Stating, "As long as it does not exceed 30 percent," Karakaş noted that some public price hikes might be postponed in the final quarter, which could indirectly affect the January raise rate.

Karakaş shared important information regarding the retirement process of civil servants who entered the SGK system after 2008.

Stating that "Those who entered the SGK system after 2008 will not be able to retire before 2033," Karakaş expressed that he based his analyses on "old-system civil servant retirees" for this reason. This situation points to a longer working process for young civil servants subject to the new system.

JANUARY RAISE IS BECOMING CLEAR, HOPES FOR FLAT-RATE INCREASE ARE WEAK

The raise rate will gain certainty with the announcement of the November and December inflation figures. According to the current picture, a salary increase between 16–18 percent and a 1,000 TL base difference are seen as guaranteed.

While expectations regarding a flat-rate raise remain weak, it is assessed that a salary increase of nearly 18 percent may be insufficient to compensate for real losses in the face of rising food and housing costs.