New assessment in US intelligence: Russia may target NATO territory

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, it has been suggested that US intelligence has shifted its assessment regarding Moscow's potential moves against NATO countries. US intelligence sources speaking to the Wall Street Journal stated that Russia could send armed groups to target NATO territory in Europe.

According to the report, the prevailing assessment in Washington had previously been that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not risk a direct confrontation with NATO while the war in Ukraine is ongoing. However, analyses conducted this year have seen the view gain weight that the Kremlin may be considering riskier options aimed at testing the alliance's resolve.

It was reported that NATO members also believe Russia is conducting "probing" attacks to test the alliance. It was noted that in recent weeks, Western fighter jets have scrambled three times to intercept unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and that Ukraine also intercepted a drone that entered Romanian airspace.

The Wall Street Journal report stated that the number of fighter jet scrambles in July increased by more than 250 percent compared to the same period last year. This increase, it was stated, has strengthened assessments that Russia continues to test Western defenses.

SCENARIOS FOR THE EASTERN FLANK

It was reported that the potential threats in US intelligence assessments cover a wide spectrum. Scenarios include cyberattacks on a NATO country, the deployment of unmarked armed groups to occupy territory, or a limited attack on the alliance's eastern flank.

According to the assessments, the timeframe Russia might set for such a move ranges from this autumn to 2029. NATO spokesperson Colonel Martin O'Donnell stated that the alliance is preparing for various scenarios, saying, "We are always considering and preparing for all kinds of scenarios." O'Donnell added, "NATO is monitoring, and we are ready to deter and defend when necessary."

The report also included assessments that Russia could escalate the crisis with a limited military move in Poland or the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All of these countries are NATO members and are among those providing strong support to Ukraine.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda recently stated that they could not deny the existence of such information, noting that potential actions could be "targeted kinetic operations that are not large-scale, but are very likely to be aimed at critical infrastructure."

Russian opposition politician and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov also argued that the probability of Putin crossing NATO borders has increased. Mentioning the possibility of a small-scale drone attack on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland, Kasparov assessed, "Putin needs a winning narrative, and Ukraine is not providing that."

In Poland, it was reported that security circles have warned that Russia and Belarus could cross the NATO border to send a small number of troops or force Warsaw to activate its air defense systems through airstrikes targeting power plants.

News Source: 12punto