The security struggle in southeastern Iran

Sistan and Baluchestan Province, one of the most sensitive regions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is located in the country's southeast along the borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Possessing a strategic location with extensive land and sea connections, the province also faces problems such as unemployment, poverty, drug trafficking, and smuggling. When the activities of armed groups and attacks on security forces are added to these issues, Sistan and Baluchestan becomes one of the priority security concerns for the Tehran administration.

The conflicts that have intensified in the region in recent months show that the security problem has not yet been resolved. Jaish al-Adl, which is stated to be linked to the People's Resistance Movement, and other Baluch armed groups are targeting members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and police patrols in Rask, Zahedan, Saravan, Bampur, and Iranshahr. The clashes, in which heavy weapons are also used, raise the question: Why does this region in southeastern Iran consistently stand out as a conflict zone?

SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY IN SISTAN AND BALUCHESTAN

It is not enough to look for the answer to this question solely in ethnic and sectarian differences. Sistan and Baluchestan occupies an important position not only for Iran's border security but also in terms of regional trade and energy routes. Therefore, the instability in the region carries a meaning beyond local issues. The question of what role external actors play in developments in the region is therefore gaining importance. Indeed, some assessments suggest that since the 1980s, Western actors, led by the United Kingdom, have established relations with leftist movements and extremist nationalist circles in the region, and that they are part of a strategy aimed at weakening Iran's territorial integrity, similar to developments in northern Iraq.

IRAN'S SOFT UNDERBELLY

To understand the tension in the region, one must first look at the social structure of Sistan and Baluchestan. While the Shiite population is dominant in the Sistan region of the province, the Sunni population stands out in the parts where Baluchis live in large numbers. However, it is not possible to explain the problems in the region solely by this sectarian difference. Economic difficulties, the issue of political representation, and demands for local governance are also among the important parts of the picture.

The Baluchis have never had an independent state of their own and have lived within a social structure consisting of tribes. Although the region they inhabit has been under the influence of various administrations in different historical periods, it has remained within Iran's sovereignty. The Friday Imam of the Baluchis, Molavi Abdulhamid Ismaeelzahi, has stated in his Friday sermons to date that their economic situation is poor and that they absolutely do not want to establish a state. He has emphasized that the demands of the Baluchis are for political representation and the end of discrimination.

Although the Baluchis do not demand a state, they want Iran to be a federal state. They want to be able to act independently in their internal affairs and military forces, as they did during the Qajar period. It is Western powers that want to separate the Baluchis from Iran and have them establish a state. The goal here is to take control of the Sea of Oman and gain influence in this sea. Because achieving this goal is also important in terms of strategic balances around the Strait of Hormuz.

The importance of the Sea of Oman becomes even more evident with Iran's maritime connections in this region. Chabahar Port stands out as one of Iran's gateways to the Indian Ocean, both in terms of trade and strategic access. Therefore, it is not enough to explain the importance of the port only with economic activities. For Western powers, the Sea of Oman is also important in terms of protecting maritime trade, maintaining military access outside the Gulf, and continuing effectiveness in the Indian Ocean.

The interest of external actors in the region becomes even more evident when it comes to the activities of armed groups. This approach links the activities of Baluch armed groups to the search for influence by Western states over the Sea of Oman. Allegations that there are soldiers belonging to foreign states and non-Baluch commanders among the armed groups also support this view.

These allegations lead to the handling of armed activities in the region within the framework of a broader competition aimed at establishing control and influence over the Sea of Oman. However, the view that the priorities of the US and other Western states regarding the region do not always coincide is also addressed in the context of this competition. US President Donald Trump's rhetoric that he is not in favor of the disintegration of Iran and his statements regarding a deal can be interpreted as an indication of this approach.

The impact of developments in Sistan and Baluchestan is not limited to Iran. The geography where the Baluchis live extends beyond Iran's borders into Pakistan and Afghanistan. For this reason, Baluch communities living within the borders of different countries maintain their connections through tribal relations, cultural ties, and common identities.

Like Iran, Pakistan is also dealing with the Baluch issue. For this reason, the fact that Pakistan has signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Saudi Arabia raises the question of what policy it will pursue in the face of developments in the region. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are aware of the seriousness of regional competition and security problems. However, they are also cooperating with Western states. These relations need to be evaluated together with the countries' needs in the fields of security, economy, and diplomacy. Because there is no other power in the region.

CONCLUSION

The instability in Sistan and Baluchestan is a multidimensional security issue where economic problems, demands for political representation, and the activities of armed groups intersect. The region's strategic location opening to the Sea of Oman carries these problems beyond Iran's domestic politics, linking them to the security of neighboring countries and regional power competition. Iran's ability to ensure lasting stability depends on producing solutions to economic and political problems in the region, as well as security measures.